Gold Price Analysis: Gold May Climb to $2,300 Ahead of Recession and Bear Market
On Thursday (January 18), during the European trading session, the price of gold remained volatile, currently trading at $2010.08 per ounce, up 0.20%.
Gold prices have been falling steadily over the past few days. Markets continued to price in expectations of a sharp rate cut following Fed Waller’s speech.
Additionally, U.S. data has unexpectedly turned up recently, strengthening the case for a repricing of expectations, which has led to higher real yields and the dollar.
In the short term, as long as U.S. data remains strong, gold prices should continue to fall, but be wary of unexpected downside data. These surprises may trigger a rebound in gold prices, which is in line with the overall upward view and therefore will bring about some strong moves.
Golden Weekly Chart
(Image source: Yihuitong)
Judging from the gold weekly chart, since 2011 to the present, the gold chart has shown a typical cup-and-handle pattern. This pattern has a bullish outlook. The consolidation over the past few years broke through the 38% retracement level (around $1,675/oz) and peaked higher than the peak at the start of the pattern in 2011.
The length of the cup is nine years, and the length of the stem is one month shy of three and a half years. The cup handle needs to last another year or so before we start looking at the viability of the entire formation.
At the close of December 2023, gold prices hit all-time highs for weekly, monthly and quarterly closes, but its upward momentum failed to materialize. Gold prices may need to close above $2,100 an ounce to generate upward momentum. If there is some volatility in the stock market, reigniting inflation concerns, gold could climb to $2,300 before a recession and bear market.
golden day chart
(Image source: Yihuitong)
On the daily chart, we can see gold breaking below key trend lines and testing above 2,000. Sellers swarmed on the break and are now targeting 1972. On the other hand, buyers need to see the price break above the downtrend line to switch from bearish to bullish.
golden 4 hours
(Image source: Yihuitong)
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has fallen back below the previous key support level of $2015, which has now become a resistance level. This is where sellers step in again, wanting to see the price drop towards 1972. Buyers, on the other hand, would like to see the price rise to higher levels to invalidate the bearish setup and move further towards the 2050 target.
2024-01-18 09:41:00
#Gold #Price #Analysis #Gold #Climb #Ahead #Recession #Bear #Market #FX678
