Securities Occasions reporter Wei Shuguang
After the quick sharp rigidity in copper futures on the New York Mercantile Alternate (COMEX), through the Asian buying and selling session on Might 20, gold, silver and copper costs continued to achieve excessive ranges. Spot gold is close to $2,450 an oz., hitting one other report excessive. Home silver futures costs rose 8%, hitting the every day restrict, whereas spot silver costs rose 8.33%.
It is not simply copper and treasured metals which have seen spectacular good points. On the twentieth, soda ash, manganese and silicon rose by greater than 6%, whereas liquefied fuel, Shanghai nickel, and many others. rose. Within the inventory market, treasured metals, industrial metals, minor metals and different sectors rose on the good points, driving coal, oil, delivery and different distribution shares.
In response, the Shanghai Gold Alternate (known as the Shanghai Gold Alternate) issued a discover to warn of dangers, and issued ensures and prolonged a number of contracts for spot gold and silver. Presently, within the worldwide market, speculative hedge fund bulls proceed to extend their positions, particularly within the US copper futures market. The shortage of provides may push costs up additional. , elevating the temper of commerce and inspiring a brand new improve in items. similar to a golden circle.
SGE board guarantee and extension
On Might 20, Shanghai Futures Alternate issued a discover on market threat management, reminding member items to extend their consciousness of threat prevention, make detailed threat emergency plans, and remind buyers to do a very good job in threat prevention, rational management, and rational funding. Shanghai Futures Alternate desires the margin ratio for spot contracts similar to gold (T + D) to be modified from 9% to 10%, ranging from the closing and settlement time on 21 Might 2024 (Tuesday), and a restrict the rise or lower can be modified from 8% to 9%;
On the identical day, within the spot market, the worth of gold (T+D) on the Shanghai Futures Alternate closed at 574 yuan/gram, a rise of two.53%, and the worth of silver (T+D) closed at 8,229 yuan/kg , a rise of 8.33%. Within the futures market, the primary gold futures contract closed at 578.84 yuan / gram, a rise of two.81%; the primary forex contract hit the every day degree, a rise of 8%, at 8,211 yuan / kg. The Shanghai Vitality Alternate Middle worldwide copper futures worth as soon as hit the 7% closing worth of 79,670 yuan / ton, setting the very best buying and selling worth because the worldwide copper futures listed nationally in 2020.
In the meantime, through the Asia-Pacific buying and selling session of the worldwide commodity futures market, COMEX gold futures, COMEX silver futures, and COMEX copper futures continued to rise, all hitting excessive ranges. As well as, worldwide spot gold was as soon as near US$2,450/ounce, once more hitting a report excessive; the worldwide spot forex stood on the US$ 32/ounce mark, persevering with to hit a brand new excessive in 11 years.
Boosted by the above costs, within the A-share market on the twentieth, treasured metals, industrial metals, minor metals and different sectors rose collectively. Zijin Mining rose 3.67%, its inventory worth hit a session excessive, and its newest market worth was 512.6 billion yuan. Sichuan Gold, Yuguang Gold and Lead, Northern Copper and different non-ferrous shares have reached every day highs, whereas the inventory of Hong Kong China Silver Group has risen greater than 50%.
Alternate-traded funds (ETFs) linked to gold shares and non-ferrous shares additionally carried out strongly. Amongst them, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850), which tracks the motion of gold spot costs on the Shanghai Monetary Alternate, rose 2.45%, and the gold inventory ETF (159562), which tracks on the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong CSI Gold Business Inventory. Index, rose 6.25%, main the checklist of ETF development The cumulative improve through the yr has exceeded 50%.
US copper quick squeeze drives commodity rise
“Home and international funds are focusing extra on funding alternatives in strategic useful resource merchandise represented by copper. . This behind the scenes is the home and international macroeconomic setting, the geopolitical setting, expectations of conventional peak demand within the season, and the optimistic themes of sizzling cash dedication on strategic mass assets between -national.
Within the worldwide market, bull speculative hedge funds proceed to extend their positions. On Might 17, the gold holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, stood at 838.54 tonnes, a rise of 5.18 tonnes or 0.62% from the earlier buying and selling day, and a cumulative improve of 6.62 tonnes that week. .
In accordance with the most recent information from the US Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC), within the week of Might 14, speculators’ internet lengthy place in COMEX gold elevated by 9,811 tons to 172,942 tons. The web lengthy place of COMEX silver speculators elevated by 6,707 tons to 41,621 tons. COMEX copper speculators elevated their internet lengthy place by 6,819 tons to 72,785 tons.
Liu Shiyao, an analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures Firm, believes that the present new excessive in market costs isn’t an accident to regulate the present market.
Moreover, US copper quick squeeze can be driving market sentiment. The newest report from Everbright Futures believes that the COMEX copper futures squeeze occasion has allowed the market to see the distressed aspect of US copper supply schedules, and bulls have taken benefit of the low inventories. historic To resolve the disaster, we should demolish the jap wall to make up for the western wall and transfer the world’s copper deliverable on COMEX. In the intervening time, the COMEX copper futures place continues to be excessive, so there could also be additional fermentation. Earlier than you see the primary turning level occasion, the course should be up.
Uncooked product
Or enter a brand new circle
On Might 20, home commodity futures closed with common good points. Amongst them, soda ash and silicon manganese rose greater than 6%, liquid fuel, Shanghai nickel, and many others. rose greater than 4%, styrene, alumina, and many others. rose greater than 3%, Shanghai gold, PVC, and many others. . rose greater than 2%, and palm oil, rubber, and many others. rose greater than 1%, cotton yarn, cotton, and many others. rose barely. Only some sorts similar to eggs and peanuts have been lowering.
Presently, world commodity costs have risen to their highest degree in 13 months. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 24 vitality, metals and agricultural commodities, has gained 9% up to now this yr, pushed by world demand and provide disruptions. Amongst them, copper costs have elevated by 31% and oil costs have elevated by 11%.
The final improve in commodity costs has triggered the inventory market to rise along with the steel sector, in addition to coal, oil, delivery, farming and different cyclical inventory sectors. In accordance with statistics from Flush iFind, amongst Shenwan secondary sectors, oil companies engineering rose 4.03%, coal mining rose 3.51%, and breeding business rose 3.27%.
Ye Peipei, head of the assets manufacturing analysis workforce and fund supervisor of the China-Europe Fund, not too long ago mentioned that we’re at present within the section of a super-commodity cycle. Previously 60 years, the market has skilled 2.5 cycles of commodity cycles. The primary spherical, from the Sixties to the Seventies, corresponded to the rise in business in the USA. The second spherical was from 2002 to 2012, in keeping with the rise in China’s industrialization and urbanization. From the start of 2020 to the third wave of the present commodity cycle, the market has sure variations on the particular situations of the present cycle, however funding alternatives additionally come up from the distinction in expectation
CITIC Development Funding’s newest analysis report mentioned the Fed’s rate of interest minimize cycle is about to start, the weak US greenback is predicted to spice up non-ferrous metals’ “monetary traits”, and yields are anticipated to assets with restricted provide are transferred. Presently, home and international demand is recovering, driving development in consumption of non-ferrous items, and the worldwide inexperienced vitality revolution continues, which is predicted to begin a brand new cycle of demand for sure items.
(Editor: Wen Jing)
2024-05-21 02:45:41
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