When it was referring to $1930 in the previous article on Tuesday 01/31/2023 and titled
Beware of the deception of the current market rally.. Is this year really the year?
It was the most important phrase in the article
“Don’t fight the Fed,” quoting Morgan Stanley.
What happened next? I think everyone knows the answer.
And then last Friday 02/03/2023 and after prices fell by more than $50 and when gold prices were referring to $1910 the article was titled
Gold: After a drop of $50…is it time to go back to the top?
It was the most important phrase in the article
“Technically, despite this wide drop, prices do not show any signs of oversold so far.”
What happened next? Prices fell an additional $50 and proved to show no sign of oversold.
New statements:
Yesterday, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, came back to the limelight again, and he spoke in an informal meeting of the Economic Club in Washington, DC… The most important of what was mentioned in his speech:
The road is still bumpy, and we will need further interest rate increases.
The jobs report came out stronger than anyone expected, and this strong report shows everyone why we think this process is going to take a long time.
· If the data continues to come out stronger than expected, the Fed will raise interest rates accordingly and possibly more [في إشارة إلى الرفع الأخير ب 25 نقطة أساس].
I expect 2023 to be a year of significantly lower inflation, and it will almost certainly take until next year to reach the Fed’s 2% target.
So it’s clear that Jerome Powell and the Fed are willing to do more rate hikes if the data calls for more hikes.
And let me quote again, “Don’t fight the Fed.”
As long as the Fed is still motivated for more hikes, don’t try to swim against the tide… Again, this is a phrase from Morgan Stanley, not my personal statement.
Are the indicators in an upward trend? [Bull Run]؟
We have two divided teams of global opinions.
– The first team, which believes that indices are in a bullish market [Bull Run] The best person to represent is Jim Cramer of CNBC, who announced it explicitly a few days ago that the market is in an uptrend, and dips represent buying opportunities.
– As for the second team, which believes that indices, even if they have risen now, are on their way to decline later.. This team is represented by Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan (NYSE:) [كما ذكرتهم بالتفصيل في المقال الأول المذكور أعلاه] They were recently joined by the American Citi Financial Services Group, which warned today of the dangers of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to 6%, and also stated that all it takes for stocks to fall is not to do anything. [في إشارة واضحة للتحذير من سوق هابط للأسهم في الفترة القادمة] … And personally, I also consider myself with this team … How about you, dear reader?
Is the fall of gold coincidentally at this time?
Opinions multiplied.. and ideas misfired.
Many of the opinions of global analysts and economists tended to advise buying with every corrective drop in gold, and voices were loud that gold deposited levels below 1900 irreversibly.
And if gold turns off the engines and announces a wide drop of $100 in less than 36 hours, and moves the price battle to new levels.
And after talking about a new peak that was higher than the peak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, talk about a correction to the 1930 levels became what is required. We will come to technical analysis in the next paragraph.. But now let us go back to the title of our paragraph. Was this decline a coincidence at this time?
In the above tweet on 01/09/2023, he drew the attention of the honorable followers that there is a strange situation that must be stopped.
It is that the futures contracts for the month of 01/2023 were referring to a very low volume, while the largest volume was concentrated in the futures contracts for the month of 02/2023.
· The futures contracts for the month of 01/2023 were expiring on 01/27/2023 … and I indicated in the tweet clearly and directly that there is a large movement expected during the time period of the futures contracts for the month of 02/2023 and this movement was not delayed much.
If it is not a coincidence… you just need us to read a lot of details… and read between the lines.
I can hear your thoughts whispering in your mind [لكنه لم يحدد أين هو اتجاه هذه الحركة].
First… this kind of detail doesn’t tell us about the direction, it only warns us that there is a big move coming.
· Secondly… I mentioned to you, dear reader, that reading requires that we read more between the lines… when my article is titled [احذر من خديعة رالي صعود الأسواق الحالي.. هل هذا العام هو عام الذهب حقًا؟] Is it not a clear warning and announcement of the expected direction?
· I thank you, dear reader, and I thank you for your ideas that are not easily convinced, but they are convinced after showing evidence and evidence.
Now let’s move on to the fundamental and technical analysis of gold prices
Basically and technically gold:
Levels from 1892 to 1897 form an important price resistance area at the present time.
Liberation from this area means a return to stability above the main positive axis of prices.
– Then, if prices are liberated from this level, the main price levels of resistance will become 1922 | 1963 | Down to the last levels approximately 1983.
– On the downside, prices must break the price range 1845 | 1841 to confirm further negativity.
– Because breaking this level means that prices broke the sub-positive axis and settled below it, which pushes for more negativity and decline.
– Breaking the aforementioned level means that the next major support levels are 1813 | 1780.
After we have finished the technical reading, let us review together the most important data.
– For the next week full of data, which starts from Tuesday, with the consumer price index [التضخم] And I will have a detailed pause with him later, and then the US retail sales on Wednesday, and the Philadelphia index for manufacturing industries on Thursday … which means that the gold plane continues to show that the seat belt light is still effective in the coming period and requires the continuation of sitting in the seats and wait.
– Trading volumes for futures contracts for the month of 02/2023 are still high so far, which means the continuation of upcoming price movements.
– Trading volumes for futures contracts for the month of 03/2023 are very low, while the contracts for 04/2023 are witnessing a large volume as well… Let’s keep these details in our mind.
– It is not possible to judge the direction of the next movement for the month of April 4 from now, as it is still very early, and the technical signals and price levels will vary and fluctuate until we reach this date.
The bottom line:
· Read many opinions and analyzes, and do not apply or take from them except what is consistent with your opinion and your technical and fundamental point of view.
· Again, if your ideas and point of view do not coincide with any of the ideas, do not apply them or take them.
The difference in points of view enriches knowledge and discussion, and does not ruin friendship for an issue.
Money markets are never certain, no one is always right.
Away from the financial markets, if you face two teams from the top European clubs, it is not possible to say for sure which of them will emerge victorious. All sports analysts strive to read the details and data, and carry out mathematical analysis, but in the end.. the matter depends on the details and data of what is happening on the ground. The playing field… So are the financial markets. It depends on the details, data, and the reaction of the markets, major banks, and market makers.
Since we mentioned them, did you see the reaction of the markets yesterday to Jerome Powell’s speech? His speech, from its beginning to its end, goes in almost one direction, which is the positivity of the dollar and the negativity of gold, and with it it can also be said that the indices are negative… But what happened? Gold rose from 1870 to about 1885, and then fell to 1865.
He was also preceded by his speech at the US Federal Reserve press conference on Wednesday 01/02/2023 .. His speech was similarly positive, and the market’s reaction was sharp with negativity for the dollar, and positive for gold at the time, up to the next day … and the logic that the legend says is from awakening The Dragon family… does not submit except to those who tame it and show confidence in it.
· Look for the dragon of logic even if it is sleeping, and be careful to be on its side so that you do not burn in the flames that it unleashes.
· Yes, market makers and major banks also have their own dragon, but they reach and roam with it until the dragon of logic wakes up, because at that time they also line up next to it and declare their loyalty.
· And one last time, “do not fight the Federalist” because the Federalist and Jerome Powell are the ones who control logic in this period.
rolling break:
Do you know why we are witnessing interactions in the markets with some of the Fed’s members’ speeches, while the interaction is less with the speeches of others?
Useful details for all traders about the Fed’s members, their tasks, and their powers in the attached video… You can follow the daily and weekly analyzes of the markets and the detailed coverage of economic events by following my YouTube channel.
We will follow up with you on price fluctuations in upcoming articles, and for more rapid and continuous updates, you can follow
my account in twitter
@GhaithAbohlal
Where you can interact through comments at any time
My YouTube channel
@GhaithAbohlal
Or my telegram channel
@GhaithAbohlalChannel
I am always happy to respond to all your questions and inquiries as soon as possible, and I am happy to read your comments and opinions and act on them until we reach together for better content and performance, which benefits all of us.
Reminder in the margins of the article:
. Trading markets always fluctuate in their directions, and depend on a lot of data and news, in addition to major banks and market makers who often direct the market, even contrary to reality and logic sometimes.
. The opinions and ideas above are the summary of the analysis, and they are not direct recommendations, but rather advice for followers, bearing in mind that no one is able to profit continuously from trading operations, even large investors.
. Therefore, we always strive to reduce losses and increase profits in accordance with the analysis and point of view of the method of price trading, by applying many methods of analysis combined and intersecting to try to reach the best results.
. We have diligence, and God is the Grantor of success.
