/ world today news/ The year does not end in the best way for Kyiv. The counter-offensive failed miserably, the Western Allies failed to agree on funding in December, and the troops ran out of artillery ammunition. However, it is naive to believe that Washington and Brussels will leave such a convenient “means against Russia” as Ukraine to fate. How can they help?
Mastering the air
As Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting of the department, since the spring of 2022, Western countries have transferred to Kiev 5,220 tanks, armored personnel carriers and BMPs, 80 helicopters, 28 aircraft, 23 thousand UAVs and more than 1,300 guns and rocket artillery systems. The Russian army had to face all types of armored vehicles brought into battle – except for the American M1A1 “Abrams” tanks, which the Ukrainian command guards.
Thanks to the help provided by the West in the last two years, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are today one of the most “variegated” armies in the world in terms of the composition of their weapons. In Ukraine alone, there are no less than seven varieties of main battle tanks, not to mention BMPs, APCs and other armored vehicles. And the variety and types of towed and self-propelled guns would be the envy of a large artillery museum.
However, Western technology did not help Kiev turn the tide of the conflict. The armor was blown up by mines and carried away by ATGMs from helicopters, howitzers were overtaken by counter-battery fire, tanks worth millions of dollars were easily destroyed by kamikaze drones costing 100 thousand rubles. It became clear that without air superiority it was impossible to break through the defensive lines. Russia, on the contrary, actively uses airplanes and helicopters.
Ukraine has long asked the West for modern fighter jets to change the situation. Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have agreed to transfer about 60 early F-16 variants, but it is not known when they will be delivered to the country. It is also not clear where they will be based in order not to come under missile attack. Finally, it is not entirely clear whether they will have time to train pilots and technicians for such an air fleet.
Against “Iskander”
Despite the West’s frustration with the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive, military aid to Kiev will not stop. However, until the defense industries of Europe and the United States reach the required production rates, supplies will be limited. Thus, the last aid package in the amount of 200 million dollars contained only the most necessary: shells, mines, cartridges, ATGMs, grenade launchers, spare parts. There is no talk of new weapons – at least not yet.
However, the West can always escalate, as it has repeatedly done through the non-public transfer of previously undeclared weapons. The Ukrainian authorities will only be happy about this. Already at the beginning of December, they handed over a wish list to the Americans, which includes THAAD anti-missile defense systems, F/A-18 “Hornet” aircraft, Apache and “Black Hawk” helicopters, T-17 “Globemaster” military transport aircraft and Ts-130 “Super Hercules” and MKu-9B “Sky Guardian” drones. The list is apparently created “with a reserve” – in the hope that they will agree on at least something.
It is unlikely that the Americans will transfer THAAD to Kiev. This is a very expensive “toy”: the cost of a battery of six launchers, a radar, a control center and support vehicles is about two billion dollars. Although it is clear why the Armed Forces need THAAD: to intercept Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which other air defense systems cannot cope with. But it’s a big question whether Washington will succeed in such a plea (especially in a presidential election year).
A problem with crews
It is not very clear why Kiev, in addition to the light F-16 fighters, also needed the heavy F/A-18 “Hornet”. For several reasons, these are quite specific aircraft originally designed to serve aircraft carriers. However, only the United States uses them in a deck role. The other six operating countries put these fighters into the air from land-based airfields. This device does not have serious advantages over the F-16. “Hornet” was probably included in the “just in case” list.
The interest of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Western helicopters is quite obvious. Ukraine no longer has its own army aviation – only a few miraculously survived Mi-8/17 military transports. And this takes into account the fact that such equipment was transferred from the former republics of the USSR and the countries of the Warsaw Pact.
There are few options: the Apache has proven to be a great but very complex weapon. You can’t prepare a team for him in six months. The transport “Black Hawk” is also not one of the easiest to master. Both machines are very expensive. An Apache costs about 52 million dollars, a Black Hawk costs from five to 25, depending on the modification.
Kiev also has problems with military transport aviation. The few flying planes have almost exhausted their resource, and new ones have nowhere to be built. The American S-17 (about $310 million per unit) and S-130 (about $65 million) are considered worthy substitutes for Soviet technology. And here, however, everything comes down to the problem of training the crew. Of course, it is possible to train several dozen cadets. But for it to have any effect, there must be a lot of Western planes. Also, transport aircraft are too large and slow a target to be ignored by Russian air defenses.
But what the Americans will most likely never hand over are the MKu-9B “Sky Guardian” reconnaissance and attack drones – This technique is very vulnerable to means of radio-electronic warfare. For the Russian defense industry, such a UAV would be a real gift. The device is able to fly up to 1,900 kilometers, stay in the air for 27 hours, reach a maximum speed of up to 400 kilometers per hour and carry almost two and a half tons of equipment and weapons. Its technical secrets would greatly aid the development of Russia’s military drone program.
In addition, the naval forces in 2024 should include the Hetman Ivan Mazepa Ada-class corvette built in Turkish shipyards. But it is unlikely that he alone will be able to oppose anything to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. And there are practically no other warships left in Ukraine.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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