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Scientists expect that the important temperature limit of 1.5 degrees of global warming will probably be broken for the first time in the coming years. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 66 percent chance that this value will be passed within the next five years.
A year ago, the United Nations climate organization estimated that chance at almost 50 percent. A warming of 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era is a value agreed in the Paris Climate Agreement. In that agreement, 195 countries jointly promise to do everything they can to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees, but the aim is for a maximum of 1.5 degrees. Island states in particular fear that they will be flooded if the earth warms up beyond that limit.
Why is 1.5 degrees an important limit? This is what happens when the temperature continues to rise:
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The fact that the chance that the temperature increase from 2023 to 2027 will exceed 1.5 degrees has increased does not mean that the target from the climate agreement can no longer be achieved. “However, the WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily and increasingly exceed the level of 1.5 degrees,” says Secretary-General Petteri Taalas of the WMO.
At the end of March, researchers said that the possibilities of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees are quickly disappearing. “In the next five years, emissions will have to fall sharply, otherwise not only the 1.5-degree target will be jeopardized, but the other Paris goal of ‘staying well below 2 degrees’ will also come under pressure,” he said. one of the researchers.
In any case, according to the WMO, it is almost certain that the next five years will yield new temperature records. There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record.
2016 is still the hottest year ever measured. In addition to greenhouse gas emissions, this was also partly due to El Niño, a weather phenomenon around the Pacific Ocean that causes extreme weather almost everywhere in the world. Now another El Niño is expected in the coming months. This usually leads to global temperatures rising a year later. In this case, that is in 2024.
El Niño is back and the whole world will know it
“Average temperatures are expected to continue to rise, moving us further and further away from the climate we are accustomed to,” says one of the scientists behind the new climate report from the WMO.
Climate change also changes precipitation patterns. For the next five years, the scientists expect more precipitation in northern Europe, Alaska, the Sahel in Africa and northern Siberia, and less in the Amazon and parts of Australia.
2023-05-17 18:37:13
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