The latest economic outlook released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Thursday said that the pace of the global economic recovery this year and next year will be slowed by persistent inflation and restrictive monetary policies by central banks in major countries and regions. predicted that the economy would not regain the momentum it had before the coronavirus pandemic, and that the recovery from the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would be weak.
According to the OECD, the global economy will grow 2.7% this year and 2.9% next year, both below the average of 3.4% in the seven years before the pandemic. This year’s rate has been revised upward from 2.6% in March. Japan lowered its rate to 1.3% this year from 1.4% in March and left it unchanged at 1.1% next year. The US (1.6%, 1%), Eurozone (0.9%, 1.5%) and China (5.4%, 5.1%) also expect a relatively modest recovery.
| 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 2022 | New Forecast | Change vs March | New Forecast | Change vs March |
| World | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.1 | 2.9% | 0 |
| Euro area | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1 | 1.5% | 0 |
| Japan | 1.0% | 1.3% | -0.1 | 1.1% | 0 |
| UK | 4.1% | 0.3% | 0.5 | 1% | 0.1 |
| US | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.1 | 1% | 0.1 |
| China | 3.0% | 5.4% | 0.1 | 5.1% | 0.2 |
| NOTE: Change vs previous forecast is in percentage points |
OECD Chief Economist Claire Lombardelli said: “The global economy is coming out of trouble, but there is still a long way to go to achieve strong and sustainable growth. We need to mitigate the impact, and in the process we must address complex challenges.”
“Of course central banks must remain vigilant and be mindful of two-way risks,” he said at a press conference. It’s a delicate balance for central banks, but for now, our view is that they need to maintain repressive monetary policy until there is evidence of a sustained return to target levels for inflation. We are talking about both headline and core inflation.”
The World Bank also announced the economic forecast on the 6th, and the world economyunstable stateand warned that growth would head for a significant slowdown later this year as the effects of rate hikes permeate.
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Global Economic Growth Is Set to Slow This Year
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
The OECD said that the effects of past interest rate hikes are spreading more and more, mainly in the real estate and financial markets, but that the full effect will be seen from this year and next year onwards. Uncertainties existed over the strength of the impact, and stronger-than-expected inflation could still persist, he said.
“The economic outlook remains markedly uncertain, with key risks to forecasts to the downside,” the OECD said.
Inflation Rates Will Stay Above Historic Averages
Source: OECD
At the same time, the OECD urged central banks to maintain their restrained stance until there were clear signs of a sustained reduction in underlying inflationary pressures, and to raise interest rates further if necessary. In the event of market stress due to tightening policies, national and regional authorities should make full use of liquidity tools, and emerging market and regional governments should adopt capital controls and He said he could temporarily intervene in the foreign exchange market.
European Government Energy Support Measures
Non-targeted fiscal aid as share of GDP
Source: OECD
Original title:Global Recovery to Be Weak and Inflation-Plagued, OECD Says (1)、World Economy Is Heading Into a Weak, Inflation-Plagued Recovery､OECD Forecasts Japan GDP to Grow 1.1% in 2024, Grow 1.3% in 2023（抜粋）
(Adds chief economist’s comment in fourth paragraph)
2023-06-07 07:01:56
#years #global #growth #rate #raised #Japan #revised #OECD #recovery #weak
