Then there is the battle for second place. It now seems to go between PVV, CDA and D66. “For the latter two parties, a number 2 position is important, because it allows them to take a good position in the formation as a middle party,” says political reporter Van der Wulp.
At the moment, CDA and D66 still have to tolerate the PVV above them: Wilders’s party has been second in the Polling Guide for months. “Wilders only has the problem that almost all parties exclude the PVV”, says Van der Wulp. “But his position as the second party in the country gives him extra stature.”
According to Van der Wulp, the PVV will look particularly tense at Forum for Democracy next week. “That party is campaigning very actively and fiercely, which is bothering the PVV.”
And then there are the newcomers on the scene in The Hague: Volt and JA21, who have 1 to 3 seats in the latest Peilingwijzer, and Bij1, Code Oranje and the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB), which have not yet been included in the Peilingwijzer, but perhaps well make a chance on a seat.
Gliders and stars
Political scientist Van Heck does not expect any major shifts, but sees plenty of things that could have an effect in the coming days. “The latest debates may still do something, just like the latest campaign activities, slips or good performances of a party leader. And the polls themselves also have an influence. These are all sources of information that people use to determine their choice.”
In that respect, parliamentary historian Bert van den Braak has to think of two events from the past. For the first one we have to go back 35 years in time, to the elections of 1986. Then the CDA became the largest, led by Ruud Lubbers, who had been prime minister for four years.
According to Van den Braak, the final debate certainly played a role in this at the time, although of course it can never be checked precisely. “The debate was with Joop den Uyl of the PvdA and Ed Nijpels of the VVD. Lubbers clearly took the role of statesman. And against all polls, the CDA became the largest.”
The second example that Van den Braak mentions is about the 2012 elections, when the SP led by Emile Roemer was in the lead for a long time in the polls. “But Roemer came across as weak in a TV debate. At the same time, the PvdA became stronger under the leadership of Diederik Samsom and a kind of conflict with Rutte started. Now you don’t have such a conflict.”
–
