ROMA — A «light» Def. Frozen. Almost a photocopy compared to the September version. Next Tuesday Economics and finance document arrives on the table of the Council of Ministers for the last time in this way. From 2025 its role and substance will change, by virtue of the new European Stability Pact.
We will move on to Medium-term structural fiscal plan: the commitments will become as long as a legislature. And the Italian Parliament will not touch the ball: the documents on public accounts will travel from the Mef to Brussels without passing through the Chambers.
The government’s Def arrives, but without the promises on taxes and pensions. Deficit below 5%
by Valentina Conte
Forecasts on GDP, deficit, debt
One problem at a time, first we need to square the forecasts for the economy in the Def. The three key variables – GDP, deficit and debt – which the Ministry of Economy is preparing to redefine are slightly different from what was estimated seven months ago. A way to buy time, wait for the outcome of the European elections in June and then correct.
In September the government expected to have one this year growth of 1.2%and deficit of 4.3% of GDP and a debt at 140.1%. The new picture remains almost similar: growth at 1%, deficit stable at 4.3% e debt just under 140.1%. Could be al 139,8%, a value very close to that ceiling. Or even better, al 138%.
The issue of public debt
The choice of where to stop the bar will begin to take shape today, when Giorgetti brings together the operational leaders of the ministry: will also sit at the table to examine the latest data on Superbonus spending in 2023 Davide Iacovonigeneral manager of the Public Debt.
In any case, the debt estimate will be used to say that it has only slightly worsened last year’s level (137,3%), despite the construction bonuses, and that they also remained below forecasts. A narrative too simplistic which could show its rope in the coming months.
The important thing for Palazzo Chigi is bypass the polls in June. Afterwards the political and economic calculations will be made, between reshuffle and corrective action. This is why the trend framework described above (how the Italian economy is doing without interventions) will be accompanied by a superficial programmatic framework (the economy with the new policies).
Superbonus, definitive stop to the transfer of credits. All communications by April 4th. Here’s the news
edited by the Economics editorial team
Spaces for manoeuvre
Differences of one or two tenths of a point more. A program deficit at 4.4 or 4.5% means you have one space of 2-4 billion. Too few for a budget law that starts with 15 billion to be found only to avoid the tax increase and reconfirm the cut to the wedge and to the Irpef.
The Accountingin reality, had presented Giorgetti with a different picture, with a much higher trend deficit for this year (between 4.5 and 5%). It won’t go that way. Indeed, in the coming years the situation seems rosy, with GDP at 1.2% in 2025 and the deficit below 4%. And an arrival at the European threshold of 3% in 2026as already estimated last autumn.
The EU infringement procedure
But there is very little to celebrate. Yesterday it was the Treasury’s turn to present thebitter cup to the parliamentarians of the Budget commissions of the House and Senate. He remembered that the opening of a procedure for excessive deficit towards Italy it is a given.
He insisted on the need to keep spending under control, as well as underlining «the undeniable need to measure and monitor the actual benefits of each individual expense».
Burn the wound of the Superbonus got out of control. For this reason he announced the end of the season of tax credits which – it is hoped – should be replaced “with types of intervention that can actually be controlled, such as contributions».
The League fears the reshuffle. Idea Meloni: Leo at the Mef and Giorgetti in Europe
by Emanuele Lauria
Giorgetti’s will
It is a sort of “testament” that he delivered to Parliament. A clue that reinforces the rumors of a possible move to Brussels as commissioner.
Glissa – «five years ago I expressed my unavailability» – but admits that «the ministers are there, then they change». As anticipated by Republic he talked about it with Giorgia Meloni. The transfer would save him a big problem: finding the money for a maneuver that is currently poor. He is light. Frozen.
#Giorgetti #freezes #Def #procedure #discounted
– 2024-04-08 21:58:57
