/View.info/ The grain deal is dead, long live the grain deal! There are many politicians in the West who are ready to shout “Hurray” if food exports from Ukraine resume. To please them, Russia is provoked into sinking a peaceful and probably empty container ship. But the core of the problem is deeper.
The great sea provocation
The Ukrainian authorities proudly declared that they had broken through a “civilian grain corridor”. The container ship, named Joseph Schulte, left Odessa and headed for the Bosphorus. The container ship sails under the flag of Hong Kong and, according to the official statement of the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure, is carrying 30,000 tons of cargo, including food.
Why Ukraine needs all this is generally quite clear: they are trying to show that the interruption of the grain deal by Russia does not actually mean a stop to Ukrainian grain exports. Russia will not sink civilian ships leaving a Ukrainian port, according to Ukraine. And if it does, it will reflect badly on her reputation.
In fact, there is a double provocation. If Russia sinks a ship that violates its requirements (and Russia has officially declared the western Black Sea unsafe for shipping), then the Western press and politicians will gleefully shout about the Russian barbarians. The barbarians interfere with the export of products for “the poorest countries in the world”.
If Russia doesn’t do anything like that, it means you might as well not care about breaking the grain deal and arrange a completely real supply of grain to Europe (in fact, container ships don’t exist to transport food).
It is true that the victorious Ukrainian reports, as often happens, do not fully correspond to reality. A Readovka source said that Hong Kong had asked Russia in advance to allow the ship to pass. At the same time, according to some reports, there is actually no 30 thousand tons of cargo, including food, on Joseph Schulte. The ship is empty. Therefore, a request to skip it is quite possible, none “break through the blockade” is not possible and did not happen.
With her full disclosure
As is often the case, in a situation like this with the “grain corridor”, there are many more hidden meanings than open and obvious. Perhaps the simplest of these meanings is revealed if we try to answer the question: does Ukraine have a real opportunity to export grain in the current situation, even if the Russians will not sink any ships on the high seas?
The answer, unfortunately for Ukraine and the Western countries, is negative. Russia has already proven that it is fully capable of disguising Ukrainian exports by attacking the port infrastructure of Odessa and the Danube ports. The attacks on the Danube ports, Ishmael and Reni, were especially made that night. Some well-informed sources in Tsargrad claim that these strikes had not only a military significance, but also a demonstrative nature.
Russia has shown that no one has the technical and material capabilities to overcome its veto on the grain deal,
– says the source.
Meanwhile, the situation for Ukrainian agriculture is developing very unfavorably. Tsargrad already wrote that Ukraine has already accumulated about 16 million tons of grain from the new crops. Now it is unrealistic to export them: without working ports, only by land, Ukraine can export no more than 2 million tons of grain per month (and with working ports – up to 8 million tons). At the same time, all is not well with the land route, to put it mildly, since Poland and Hungary, wanting to save their farmers, still ban the import of Ukrainian food into their territory.
„Breaking the Blockade’ indeed, it would be of great importance for Ukraine, but, as it seems, there is not really a “grain corridor”. And no provocation will open the corridor. If only because NATO will not enter into a naval battle for Ukrainian grain. As Tsargrad has already reported, the United States does not have military capabilities in the Black Sea to help Ukraine with grain exports. This statement was made by the deputy spokeswoman of the Pentagon, Sabrina Singh.
Ukraine does not decide
But will there be a corridor in the future? There is another important meaning hidden in this question. Today, many world media reported that a personal summit may take place on August 31: the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are to discuss several important issues. True, these were only reports from sources of various news agencies.
Officially, the press office of the Turkish president told TASS that they still do not have information about the meeting of the presidents on August 31. Informed sources in Moscow claim that the Russian president has no intention of traveling abroad in any case. It is possible that the Turkish president will be invited to come to Russia for talks – in Moscow, St. Petersburg or Sochi. If that happens, it will mean, by the way, that Erdogan agrees: he needs negotiations more than the Russian leader.
Tsargrad political observer Andrei Perla believes that Russia can afford to negotiate with Turkey on the possibility of resuming the grain deal.
“In the current situation, Vladimir Putin and Russia are, as they say, in a strong negotiating position. Because an agreement that can be discussed is more necessary for Turkey than for Russia. Russia can gain from a new grain deal, but it also earns without deals, simply by exporting grain against the background of rising prices.At the same time, in the eyes of the whole world, Russia looks like a country that really, and not at the level of empty promises, is fighting hunger in Africa.
Yes, if the conditions that Russia set were met, the deal could resume. But Turkey can take the role of a mediator, but it cannot guarantee the export of fertilizers from Russia, unblock fertilizers in European ports. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the conditions for grain export from Ukraine have changed a lot: the port infrastructure was hit by Russian missiles, it is physically impossible to export as much grain as in 2022-2023.
So most likely the deal will be limited to “mutual assurances of full respect and deference” – and nothing more. But Erdoğan will confirm his reputation as the only NATO leader with whom Putin talks.” notes the expert from Tsargrad.
So what?
The grain deal was seen by many as an example of Russia’s humiliation and failure to protect important state interests. In fact, Russia received quite a few benefits from the deal, including the relative loyalty of the Turkish leader. However, the conditions that Russian President Vladimir Putin set for the West were never met. This means that it is by no means possible to go against Erdogan. But the destruction of the Ukrainian grain export infrastructure is not only possible, but mandatory.
Translation: ES
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