Ghost of election losers haunts Nagatacho What the defeated Ishiba administration needs now (Akira Kume unravels the reality of the political world): Tokyo Shimbun TOKYO Web

The October 27 House of Representatives election, in which a money scandal involving the Liberal Democratic Party was questioned, ended in a heavy defeat with the ruling party losing its majority. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (President of the Liberal Democratic Party) aims to continue his administration and plans to cooperate with some of the opposition parties, but there are also theories about responsibility within his ‘ party. The Constitutional Democratic Party, which has made significant progress, is also aiming for a change of government, and all eyes will be chosen to name the prime minister at a special session of the Diet. We asked Akira Kume to explain the current chaotic situation.

◆ Elections are about whether you want to join the ruling party or not.

– First, why did the ruling party suffer such a loss?

It all started when the House of Representatives was dissolved early, and he was criticized for being “unlike Mr. Ishiba.” There was some healing thanks to unknown slush money from members of the Diet, but a problem arose in which 20 million yen was also paid to a political party branch of an unknown candidate, and the situation returned to normal.

Elections are fought on the promise of a dream to “do something,” but because the party was dissolved early, it was not possible to hold a party-wide debate, and the situation was such that there were no dreams ‘ could be. have spoken As a result, the slush money scandal became an issue in the House of Representatives election. This is also because the slush fund scandal was not handled properly during the Kishida administration.

-On the other hand, opposition parties such as Rikmin, the People’s Democratic Party, and Reiwa Shinsengumi made significant progress.

There was a big end for the Liberal Democratic Party, but that does not mean that there was a tailwind for the main opposition parties. Elections are about whether you join the ruling party or not. I believe that the reason the Parties and the Japanese Conservative Party got so many seats is because of continued dissatisfaction with the established political parties.

◆ The ghosts of those who lost the election are rising in Nagatacho

– Voter turnout was 53.85% in single seat constituencies, the third lowest since the war.

I believe this is due to a lack of definition of “politics and money”, which led to the election going into the election with voter trust towards the political world. -completely unresolved, and even among supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party, they did not turn out to vote.

People listen to speeches on the street as the final day of the House of Representatives election approaches in Ota Ward, Tokyo on the 26th (Photo by Koshiro Hirano)

– It is expected that a special Diet session for the election will be held to name the prime minister on November 11. Will the prime minister be able to quell the discontent within the Liberal Democratic Party by then?

There are voices calling for Prime Minister Ishiba to be held accountable. It is only natural that he fell short of his own goal, to have a majority in the ruling party. The ghosts of those who lost the election haunt Nagatacho. The Prime Minister must, first and foremost, hold a general meeting of the members of both houses of Congress and explain the election results in detail to his party. Without doing so, it would be inappropriate to talk about ways to bring in opposition parties based on the assumption that the Ishiba administration will continue.

◆ Opposition parties should be adults too…

– Even if Prime Minister Ishiba is able to suppress discontent within the party, do you think he will be able to get cooperation from the People’s Democratic Party and the Restoration Party of Japan, such as forming a coalition or collaborating outside the cabinet?

The hurdles are high. For the Meiji Restoration and People’s Democratic Party, if they simply accept the LDP’s invitation, they will betray the people’s expectations and face a tit-for-tat rematch in the House of Representatives election. Counselors next summer.

When it comes to policy discussions, both of us have made promises in the House of Representatives election, so we cannot compromise easily. In particular, “politics and money” will be extremely difficult. For the Liberal Democratic Party, donations from corporations and organizations and money for policy actions are a matter of life and death, and cannot be easily sustained to maintain power.

– Will there be a “sub-coalition” in which each party cooperates with opposition parties that share the same direction on individual policies?

I think it will be rather difficult if we leave basic issues such as “politics and money”. However, it will be difficult if important issues such as support for people in need do not progress. The opposition parties should respond in a mature way, but there must be a rationale for the people to think, “It can’t be helped.”

Democratic Party of Japan representative Yoshihiko Noda smiles during a press conference at the party’s headquarters in Nagatacho, Tokyo on October 27 (Photo by Tetsuya Futo)

-If the Ishiba administration continues as a “minority ruling government,” the most recent example that comes to mind is the Haneda administration in 1994.

In order to pass a bill, it would be necessary to overcome the obstacles facing the opposition parties, which could significantly slow down the pace. I think that the people’s dissatisfaction with this will be stronger in the governing party than in the opposition party.

◆ Is there a possibility of a democratically focused government?

– Will the Ishiba administration last until next summer’s House of Councilors election and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election?

If we lose the election, we will be left with nothing, so I think there is a possibility that some people will say, “Prime Minister Ishiba cannot fight.”

-I think there is a non-zero possibility that the Prime Minister will resign before the special Diet session, but in that case, who will succeed him? Is Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of State for Economic Affairs and Security, who remained in the race in the recent Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, the most likely candidate?

Many people who supported Takaichi in the presidential election lost the House of Representatives election. Anyway, I think we need someone who can speak calmly to the opposition parties.

– What is the possibility of creating a democratic government as a result of the election of the nomination of the prime minister?

I think the most important thing is that the Liberal Democratic Party, which won seats as the “number one party” in the House of Representatives elections, will continue in power. This time, it doesn’t seem like the people wanted an opposition government either. The opposition party did not present a candidate for a united prime minister, and there was no sense of the will to take power. This was an election to support the Liberal Democratic Party, not an election to elect a government. That is up to the opposition party.

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We ask Akira Kume, an electoral and political consultant, to explain the political trends moment by moment. Kume has been a member of the Liberal Democratic Party for about 40 years, observing political developments from a different perspective than that of a member of Congress with a badge. In particular, he has a wealth of practical experience in elections, and is someone who knows the ins and outs of the political world. Based on his wealth of knowledge and experience, he can hear the fear of the current state of politics.

Yes