The capacity of the source and contact investigation (BCO) has also been far exceeded. At BCO, GGD employees try to find out where someone has become infected and with whom someone has been in contact. But “the current situation with numbers of infections is so unprecedented and extreme that this has not been taken into account in any scenario,” says GGD GHOR. That is why many GGD regions only call results. Positive tested people should then inform their contacts themselves.
“International research shows that well-functioning source and contact research can significantly lower the R-number,” says Van Zelst. “It is also more impressive when the GGD calls and says that someone should be quarantined or tested than if someone does it themselves.”
Source research can also show where an infection may have been contracted, such as at home, at school or in the catering industry. In the past week, the GGDs were only able to designate a so-called setting in 22 percent of the cases. Epidemiologist and pediatrician Patricia Bruijning does not think this is a big problem: “It’s about the trend. We were always only able to find out a limited part. That part is now smaller, but you can extrapolate to get a complete picture.”
Cloudy vision
Baidjoe and Van Zelst point to another consequence of testing capacity reaching the limits: the view of the virus becomes cloudier. According to Van Zelst, the official RIVM infection figures will soon show a plateau.
But is that because the number of infections is leveling off as a result of the measures, because more tests simply cannot be performed, or because fewer people are tested if they cannot get an appointment somewhere quickly? “Being able to test easily is very important for test readiness,” says Baidjoe.
Van Zelst: “You can no longer see from the infection figures whether the current measures are enough. So you can now only manage hospital admissions.” But if you wait for them to drop or not, you’ll be two weeks ahead in no time, so two weeks later with stricter intervention if necessary. And that while a healthcare attack is imminent.
Also watch this video from NOS op 3: why can’t the IC capacity be scaled up?
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