The German economy continues its free fall and for the second year running is the worst performing of all G7 countries. According to the assumptions so far, Germany could even surpass the Republic of South Africa in terms of economic growth, writes the British newspaper Express. The Ifo Institute predicts that the German economy will grow by only 0.2 percent, despite being the largest economy in Europe. “Consumer restraint, high interest rates and price increases, government austerity measures and a weak global economy are currently dampening the economy and leading the country to another recession,” believes Timo Wollmershäuser, an analyst from the Ifo Institute.
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Germany is the worst G7 economy for the second year in a row. Its economy shrank by 0.1 percent last year and is expected to grow by just 0.2 percent this year, a sharp decline from previous forecasts of 0.7 percent growth.
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Berlin was also quite shaken by the cancellation or postponement of development projects due to falling real estate prices. Germany has also been hit particularly hard by the slow growth of China, which is one of its main trading partners. But the Germans hope for a turnaround in the second half of the year. “Economic performance will accelerate in the middle of the year, as interest and price burdens will gradually disappear and the purchasing power of consumers will increase,” predicts Wollmershäuser.
Rapid energy price increases, green and regulatory policies, and overall confusion on the European energy market also took their toll on Germany. The Russian occupation of Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East play a significant role in this. A month ago, Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, issued a strong warning that uncertainty about climate and transition policy remains elevated.
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The imaginary “light at the end of the tunnel” is the slowly decreasing inflation. A year ago, inflation in the world’s third-largest economy hovered around 5.9 percent, but now it’s closer to 2.3 percent. In this regard, the Ifo Institute states that it should fall below 2 percent during the year and could reach 1.6 percent in 2025.
Despite the economic difficulties, Finance Minister Christian Lindner says the country is not the sick man of Europe. “Germany is not the sick man of Europe. It is rather a tired man,” Lindner said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“After a quiet period since 2012, some crisis had to come. And Germany is tired after this short night, and low growth expectations are partly a wake-up call. And now we will have a good coffee – which means structural reforms – and then we will continue with economic success,” he said Lindner in Switzerland.
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As usual, the USA has the strongest economy with 2.1 percent GDP growth. Only one place ahead of Germany is Great Britain, which, however, anticipates growth of 0.6 percent. Italy is also forecast to grow by 0.7 percent. Behind Germany is the already mentioned Republic of South Africa (JAR), which may overtake the country this year. According to the International Monetary Fund, the economy of the most developed African continent will grow by up to 1 percent.
Prestigious časopis Foreign Affairs believes that if Germany wants to remain a global leader in manufacturing and trade, it must “advance the green transition, attract skilled immigrants and eliminate unnecessary bureaucracy.”
2024-03-07 20:22:00
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