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TODAY • 4:29 AM
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Industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer believes that the Corona crisis will result in the loss of more than 100,000 jobs in the German auto industry. Demand is expected to plummet 15 percent this year, and after the experience of the financial market crisis, the catch-up process will take more than ten years, the professor wrote in a study.
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Overnight capacities of 1.3 to 1.7 million vehicles exist in the German plants. Short-time work allowance only bridges short periods. No company can maintain unused production capacity for years. That is why 100,000 of today’s 830,000 jobs at car manufacturers and suppliers in Germany are at risk – “under optimistic assumptions,” wrote Dudenhöffer.
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Car production in Germany had dropped from 5.1 to 4.7 million vehicles last year. The economic researcher expects a decline in sales of 15 percent in Germany, 20 percent in China, 25 percent in France and the USA and 30 percent in Italy this year. Production in Germany should “shrink to 3.8 million vehicles with an optimistic forecast. Under a pessimistic scenario, we only expect 3.4 million vehicles. ”
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“The reason is not problems in the supply chains, but clearly the lack of demand,” emphasized Dudenhöffer: The auto industry has “a serious, long-term demand problem.” The economic growth after the 2009 debt crash suggests that the United States would need at least ten years to connect with the year 2019. In Europe, too, there is little to suggest a growth boom after the Corona crisis: “In the past, the big crises in Europe were the opposite.”
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