Better an ending with horror than a horror without an end. This phrase is often heard in Berlin these days when there is talk of the end of the governing alliance. In recent weeks tensions within the coalition had grown to such an extent that it was only a matter of time before the government in its current form was brought down – and indeed it was necessary to do so.
Opinion polls show that the so-called “traffic light” coalition, consisting of the green (environmental), yellow (liberal) and red (social democratic) parties, has lost the trust of the majority of the population.
This alliance is considered the most unpopular government that Germany has had in a long time. Just 19% of respondents have a positive view of Chancellor Olaf Solz, a polling low.
This may, on the one hand, be due to the personal qualities of the chancellor. Many Germans see Solz as lacking charisma, while his critics accuse him of poor communication.
However, the criticism of the lack of leadership has mainly to do with the structural problems of German coalition politics. Olaf Solz until recently led a government of three parties (while now there are two left), which on many issues have completely different ideological positions.
Political theater
From the beginning of his tenure, Olaf Solz was forced to find compromises between the conflicting interests and positions of his government partners. The fact that inter-party debates were increasingly held in public, in front of cameras, caused enormous damage to the image of the government and its leader. Instead of showing unity and a clear strategy to solve the many problems, the alliance was presented as a political theater.
To put an end to this spectacle of lack of unity, Scholz in the middle of the week sacked the finance minister, Christian Lindner, who many see as the biggest culprit for the tensions in the collapsing coalition.
As finance minister, Lindner was a central figure in the cabinet. He is also the president of the FDP, a relatively small party that is fighting for its political survival and often feels obliged to defend its positions with particular tenacity.
The reason for the dissolution
The main reason for the dissolution of the alliance was – as is often the case in politics – the dispute over finances. There were fundamentally different ideological approaches within the government.
While Lindner insisted on a tight fiscal policy (with fiscal discipline as a dogma), Olaf Scholz and the Green ministers – most notably the deputy prime minister, Robert Hambeck – believed that Germany needed to take out new loans to deal with the economic problems. and political challenges.
In the end, it was mainly the additional funds requested by Solz for military aid to Ukraine, which Lindner refused, that led to the escalation of the crisis and the dissolution of the alliance.
Olaf Solz is known for his moderate rhetoric. This may be linked to his origins in the North of Germany, where the sentimentality of the South is rare.
The harshness with which he is now targeting the former finance minister, whom he portrays as almost solely responsible for the government’s difficulties, has surprised many – and is unusual for German political confrontation.
The “traffic light” is now history. The political experiment collapsed where the cracks were in the first place: in the deep, ideologically-based differences between two more left-wing parties – the Greens and the Social Democrats – and the centre-right FDP.
What will happen from now on?
The timing for the most serious political crisis Germany has experienced in some time could not be more inopportune. The political drama in Berlin came to a head a few hours after the announcement of the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States.
Everyone agrees that Europe needs strong leadership to face the new challenges that a second Trump term entails for the Old Continent. It is doubtful that Olaf Solz, without a parliamentary majority, has the political power to make important decisions.
In Germany the election campaign has already started. Recriminations and debate over who is to blame for the alliance’s collapse reign supreme. The answers to the questions of how to solve the numerous problems, especially of the German economy, lie on the sidelines.
The central question of what will be done from here has more to do with calculating tactics of political actors than with political programs. Chancellor Soltz plans to seek a vote of confidence in mid-January, which he will surely lose, leading – according to the Constitution – to new elections two months later.
Solz’s plan
This delay has tactical expediency. Solz hopes to get major legislation passed by parliament in the coming weeks to improve his chances in the spring election. The opposition categorically rejects the delay and demands that the vote of confidence be held “here and now”.
The poisoned climate in Germany’s political scene shows that even on procedural issues there is no room for political compromise. At small and large levels, politicians have lost the will to compromise. This is a dangerous development in a country that has traditionally relied on coalition governments where compromise and goodwill have been key.
Germany’s political order depends on a willingness to compromise – otherwise, the chaos of ungovernance threatens the country.
Dr. Ronald Maynardous is a political analyst and commentator and principal researcher of ELIAMEP.
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