by Ninni Radicini * –
The electoral consultation held on 8 October for the renewal of seats in the Landtag of Bavaria, the single-chamber state parliament, produced some notable results. The CSU (Christian Social Union) confirms itself as the first party with 37% (-0.2), followed by FW (Free Voters) which with 15.8% (+4.2) becomes the second party, overtaking the Greens, which fall to fourth place with 14.4% (-3.2), also surpassed by AfD (Alternative for Germany) in third place with 14.6% (+4.4). The SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) is still losing support, stopping at 8.4% (-1.3). Below the threshold of 5%, the FDP (Liberal Party) does not obtain any seats, with 3% (-2.1), nor does Linke (The Left) with 1.5% (-1.8), which also in the Previous legislature had no representative. Other minority groups total 5.2% overall.
The German electoral system, both at the federal and state level, provides for the allocation of a part of the seats with the majority method and a part with the proportional method (to the lists that obtain at least 5% of the votes). The 203 seats in the Bavarian Parliament were allocated to CSU 85 (=), Free Voters 37 (+10), AfD 32 (+10), Greens 32 (-6), SPD 17 (-5).
CSU and FW, the two parties that made up the outgoing government coalition (also referred to as the “black-orange” coalition, in reference to the colors of the two parties), chaired by the Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) Markus Söder (CSU), had different electoral results. While confirming itself as the leading party, the CSU scored the worst result in the Bavarian state elections since 1950. The electoral flows revealed the shift to the Christian Socials of significant shares of former voters both from the main parties and from minority formations (below the share of the 5%), as well as coming from the abstention area. But CSU loses equally significant shares of its former voters, who in this election chose to vote for Free Voters and AfD.
Free Voters – party with a liberal-conservative orientation – entered the Bavarian Parliament for the first time in 2008 and the European Parliament in 2014 (in the 2019-2024 legislature it elected two deputies belonging to the Renew Europe parliamentary group). The FW figure is one percentage point higher than that indicated in the pre-election surveys. It is worth highlighting the victory in two constituencies and consequently the obtaining of two seats directly attributed, one of which to the party president Hubert Aiwanger, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy in the black-orange government 2018-2023. In the outgoing executive, FW had three ministries – Economy, Culture, Environment -, which it is hypothesized could increase to four, although the CSU ruled out this change in the balance of the coalition before the elections. The predictability of an electoral result that was still better than the already notable precedent projected Electorali Liberi towards the 2025 federal elections, setting the goal of obtaining its own representation in the Bundestag.
It should be noted that the three parties that make up the majority of the federal government – SPD, Greens, FDP – the “Semaforo” coalition (with the colors of the three political formations) have lost consensus. The SPD data is particularly negative: 8.5% is the lowest percentage obtained by the Social Democrats in the history of elections in the Land of Bavaria, which worsens the 9.7% of 2018, itself already a historical negative record. During the election campaign, SPD aimed to reach 15%. The Greens have lost support to all the main parties, including over 100 thousand former voters who chose to vote for the CSU in this election. A portion of former Green voters oriented themselves towards minority formations and a further portion decided to abstain.
The negative result of the FDP, which in the previous legislature had 12 deputies, confirmed the pre-election findings in which the Liberals in Bavaria fluctuated between 3 and 4%, following a fluctuating trend that began in 2008. It is not the first time that FDP gains no seats in the Bavarian parliament. In fact, the FDP remained without representation for over a decade between 1994 and 2008. During the pandemic period, the Liberals, without denying the difficulties and complexity of that phase, criticized the more restrictive measures. But, as demonstrated by the electoral result, this line did not resonate with that part of the electorate that was contrary to the relevant provisions implemented by the executive (both at federal and state level), since it was the AfD that benefited from it.
Alternative for Germany has characterized itself as the party of maximum opposition to any government coalition, federal and local. In the run-up to the Bavarian elections, it benefited from the further increase in the importance of the immigration issue, which has become the central programmatic point, in particular in the 2023 electoral campaign in Bavaria, where the AfD did not find particular social and administrative problems from which to draw consensus, unlike in the eastern Länder (the former East Germany). In the first exit polls communicated by ZDF television, Alternative for Germany was given 16%, second party, ahead of the Greens and Free Voters. In the subsequent voting, the percentage stabilized at around 14%, which nevertheless marks a significant strengthening of the AfD in Bavaria.
In the electoral flows the CSU lost its former voters to the advantage of FW (140 thousand from CSU to FW) and AfD (80 thousand from CSU to AfD). FW lost 30 thousand, who chose AfD. A competition has therefore been created between the FW and the AfD and both with the CSU, which on the AfD side affects the electoral outcome. Although notable, the AfD’s electoral figure is below the 20% share that recent surveys in 2023 attributed to it at the federal level.
On October 12, an exploratory conversation took place between CSU and FW to start negotiations regarding the formation of the governing coalition. The conversation was held by the two group leaders in the Bavarian Parliament. Already during the election campaign, Prime Minister Markus Söder highlighted his intention to continue with the executive formed by CSU and Free Voters, excluding the possibility of an agreement with the SPD and the Greens. The first convocation of the Bavarian Parliament of the 2023-2028 legislature is expected to take place on 30 October, with the election of the President of the Assembly. The election of the Prime Minister is scheduled for the next day and the presentation of the state government is scheduled for November 8th.
* Nini Radicini he has published various articles on Germany (political-electoral-historical area). Articles on other topics have been published in various periodicals. He has also published reviews and prefaces to books. Co-author of the book Contemporary Greece (1974-2006).
