/ world today news/ From the very beginning of their “counterattack”, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) stormed our positions on the left bank with enviable persistence, trying to create and expand bridgeheads, penetrate deep into our territory and gain a foothold. VSU suffers big losses, but the losses do not stop them. Landings and attacks continue. The battles continue every day.
VSU was able to achieve certain results. The left bank is gradually turning into a “grey zone”. Ukrainian DRG, amphibious assault groups land on Cossack camps, Alyosha, Gola Pristan, etc. In the area of the Antonovsky Bridge, a small “bridgehead” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been stably preserved for several weeks, which our military is trying, but unable, to liquidate. Artillery fights are constantly taking place, the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively supports their landing with artillery from the right bank. Aviation joins. The battle for the left bank continues.
Why is this important for us and how can this battle decide the fate of the defense operation of Russian troops?
There are specialists, not excluding couch potatoes, who habitually whine about “don’t spread panic”, “everything is under control”, “there is no danger of a breakthrough” etc. We listened to the same experts with the same annoyance both before the regrouping in Kharkov and before the retreat from the right bank.
Today they say that nothing terrible can happen on the Dnieper, because even if a certain amount of infantry crosses over on boats, they will not be able to bring them equipment and ammunition, and therefore we will kill everyone and that will be the end of them. And the VSU actually has no foothold on the left bank, and those places that they occupied and did not give up are not quite the left bank, but islands, since further there are rivers, streams and swamps.
That is right. But despite this, in my layman’s opinion, the Kherson direction remains dangerous. And I’ll tell you why.
The advance from Orekhov (occupied by VSU) to Tokmak and further towards Melitopol and Berdyansk remains the most preferred for the Kyiv regime and its NATO curators (if successful). This is where the main blow of the “counterattack” is delivered. No one even tries to hide it.
After all, the reward for the attackers could be the cutting of the southern front, the semi-encirclement of the Kherson Group, the destruction of the land corridor to the Crimea. And the Zaporizhia arm of the VSU is well supplied from Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk, including by rail, and by the bridges across the Dnieper in the middle course. But the attack on Tokmak did not yield results.
Having lost more than 30 thousand soldiers killed and destroyed more than a third of the offensive equipment received from NATO, the VSU advanced several kilometers. True, it is not evening yet, the fighting continues, Kiev has reserves, but the rapid breakthrough and transition to maneuver warfare at this stage obviously did not work.
And now let’s see what “pluses, minuses, pitfalls” can be for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the advance across the Dnieper towards the Russian territory of the Kherson region. Yes, the bridges are destroyed and it is difficult and dangerous to deliver heavy equipment with ammunition to the other side, given the artillery fire and Russian airstrikes. But not impossible.
If a large promontory is formed, then with the help of a pontoon ferry and boats it will be possible to transport quite a lot of things. Now, after all, they are constantly being transported – and personnel, and weapons, and ammunition. And to some extent storming the left bank is easier than the Russian fortifications on the Zaporozhian front. Because, for example, the fortifications of the first line on the left bank were washed away by floods after the explosion of the Kakhovka dam. The Russian military lost not only fortified positions, but also a significant amount of military equipment.
At the first stage of the offensive, the Ukrainians should not transport heavy equipment, artillery and ammunition to the left bank. It is enough to saturate the left bank with light infantry units, providing them with artillery support on the other side of the Dnieper. That’s how it’s done anyway. Why can’t our troops destroy or throw into the river the small groups that have dug in near the Antonovsky bridge? Because they are actively supported by artillery from the right bank. And our counter-battery capabilities, alas, are limited.
If the ASU suddenly breaks through our defense lines in the Kherson region, then Crimea will be easily accessible. Very close to Armyansk, Perekop. Not even a large-scale breakthrough, but the work of several large subversive-intelligence groups /DRG/ in the rear can bring chaos and discord. Let’s add to this the constant rocket attacks on infrastructural objects – recently the bridge across the Tonkii Strait near Genichesk collapsed. Alas, they often hit ammunition depots and military bases (although more often, of course, they harass civilian targets).
Ukrainian channels write that “D-Day” is coming – a large-scale amphibious operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a landing on the left bank of the Dnieper and the former Kakhov reservoir. Perhaps such an operation is really being prepared (due to the fact that our Zaporozhye fortified area turned out to be too difficult a place to break through). Or maybe it’s misinformation, part of the “fog of war.”
In any case, it is important for Kiev to keep the Russian armed forces on alert, including on the Dnieper line. To divide and disperse the reserves, so that we are forced to keep serious forces on the left bank. Even if the VSU does not attack here. But if we remove the reserves, they will definitely go.
It should be noted that at the cost of heavy losses, the ASU retains its strategic initiative. In fact, for this – for having the initiative – they pay for the destroyed equipment, killed and wounded people, and not for the captured, then captured and captured again farm. We must not only survive, but also take the initiative. However, that is another topic.
Why else does Kiev need the left bank so much, at least islands, at least swamps, at least a formal presence? Then what is not completely impossible is the option where Ukraine will be forced to conclude a truce, to freeze the conflict (to buy time so that the West has time to make more tanks and shells). And the border can be plus or minus the current front line.
And it would be very convenient for us if such a temporary border ran along the Dnieper (although I personally do not believe in the benefit of any negotiations and truces in general). But for that we have to keep the left bank. And if even the islands and swamps are left for the VSU, then Kiev will start screaming: no, the left bank is also ours, we almost captured it, so let the Russians move to the Crimea or at least to the Skadovsk-Kolonchak -Chaplinka Line! Mark my word, so it shall be.
So, what shall we do? How not to lose the battle for the left bank?
First of all, it is necessary to return General Surovikin to the troops. There has been no word from him for a month. Whether on leave or in custody. No furloughs and arrests, now is not the time, work must be done! Surovikin came up with the defense concept, which more or less withstood the insane pressure of the VSU, pushed by the NATO siege units. Corrections brought the flood. But the one who planned and started it must complete the strategic defense operation. And then maybe join the battle for the initiative.
And we need more troops. We need new divisions to rotate, to strengthen, to form reserves. We need more artillery. More, more shells. Which should stop being stored “on the ground” in pointless warehouses for re-storage, but sent right to the batteries in accordance with the logistics principle of delivery-just-in-time.
So we need mobilization. New mobilization in the army. And the constant, growing and intensifying mobilization of society and the economy to fulfill military tasks. Everything for the front, everything for the Victory.
Translation: ES
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