German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock believes that excluding Russia from the Swift interbank system would cause “massive collateral damage” to the German economy.
Will Russia be excluded from the Swift interbank system? This sanction envisaged by Western countries in response to the invasion of Ukraine was presented as a “financial nuclear weapon” by the Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire who said he was in favor of it on Friday. For its part, the European Commission said it wanted to give itself “a few days to work” on this option, in order to study “the technical feasibility and the consequences”.
In reality, Europeans seem divided on the issue. Germany, in particular, has been reluctant to pull this lever. On Friday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock even estimated that Russia’s exit from the Swift banking messaging network would cause “massive collateral damage” across the Rhine.
“We will do everything we can to stop this madness,” she told ARD public television, referring to the Russian attack in Ukraine. But we also have to make sure that we don’t choose instruments that Putin would end up making fun of because they would hit us much harder.”
And for good reason, Germany depends largely on Russia for its supply of gas but also of coal which it buys via the Swift system: “Germany is 50% dependent on imports of Russian coal”, recalled the vice- German Chancellor Robert Habeck. “If we don’t have this coal, the coal-fired power plants in Germany will not be able to operate.” It is indeed difficult to find short-term alternatives. “And of course we have to ensure that we continue to have a stable supply of electricity and heat,” said Annalena Baerbock.
“Destabilize”
According to her, the difficulties of energy supply would lead to a “destabilize in our country”, which is precisely what Vladimir Putin wants. However, the sanctions currently taken, such as the impossibility for Russian banks to finance themselves in Europe, are just as effective in harming the Russian economy, assured the minister.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindher has meanwhile indicated that other sanctions against Russia will be considered, including exclusion from the Swift system. But he warned that the consequences of such a decision in terms of energy supply should be studied upstream: “We are open to it, but you have to know what you are doing,” he said.
Asked about this exclusion on Thursday evening, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his part declared: “It is very important that we decide on the measures that have been prepared in recent weeks and that we keep everything else for a situation where it would be necessary to do other things”.
–
