Polish intelligence reports that they have noticed the first episodes when the Belarusian regime itself begins to transport migrants away from Minsk back to the Middle East, who refuse to cross the forests to the European Union (EU) border as winter approaches. However, the Poles themselves add that this does not mean that the migrant crisis is easing. Meanwhile, the German services are calling for the opposite to be taken into account, and Latvian security guards do not yet see that the pressure on the Belarusian border could ease.
The video footage depicts the situation in Minsk – migrants who have become smuggled into the instruments of the smuggling of human beings and the Lukashenko regime against the EU – have been “stuck” in the Belarusian capital. The tourist visas issued to them by Belarus have expired, the regime no longer pays for hotels, thus hundreds of illegal people have become homeless in Belarus.
As long as the situation with us is stable – efforts in the neighborhood to enter the EU illegally from Belarus are increasing. Migrants distribute videos on social networks from border forests – including instructions on how to set up places to take refuge in winter. German intelligence has released data that more than 8,000 attempts to enter Germany from Poland have been registered there since the summer. These are the people who have crossed the borders of Belarus with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland into the EU.
German security services estimate that between 800 and 1,000 migrants are returned to Belarus every day. The German authorities have also released a map with the new smuggling routes – illegal from Iraq arriving in Minsk, flying through Ukraine, Turkey, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates. They are then transported in small groups to the EU’s external borders. German security services report that migrants are given warm clothing, including drugs, so that people can endure longer in the forest. At the same time, Belarusian border guards are using drones to search for vulnerabilities on the borders of the Baltic region.
The Latvian Security Service TV3 News informs that at present there is no evidence that the flow of migrants organized by the Lukashenko regime could decrease: The Service systematically and purposefully obtains information on issues related to the diversion of illegal border crossers organized by the Belarusian regime to Latvia and other EU Member States. The information currently available to the service does not suggest that the flow of third-country nationals to Belarus organized by the Belarussian regime could be reduced. “
Latvian Interior Minister Marija Golubeva (AP) points out that the situation is still tense but stable: “This situation is not completely predictable, we are ready for all scenarios, I am grateful to the border guard for his professional work in preventing crossing since August.”
The European Commission has indicated that the construction of a physical barrier at the external borders will not be funded. In an “900 seconds” interview, Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs (JV) acknowledged that discussions are still ongoing and that the EU must understand that the situation in our region is a threat to the whole union: This is where opinions are divided at the moment, but I think that in a while Europe’s most skeptical colleagues will come to a different conclusion, because now other countries within the EU, not only countries such as Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, are already experiencing this hybrid threat. “
NATO is also following developments. For the time being, however, the issue of Article 4 consultations is not relevant – I would point out that Article 4 provides that, in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any country, a Member State meets at a common table to find practical solutions.
“We have deliberately chosen not only Latvia, but Lithuania and Poland not to engage in the so-called Article 4 wider consultations, because we see that we are still coping, but NATO has helped to attract its specialists in hybrid threats, and if the situation worsens, Wider involvement of NATO, ”the Latvian Foreign Minister points out.-
The situation has intensified in recent days on the Polish border with Belarus. At night, on Tuesday, an armed person in uniform without breaking signs broke into Polish territory. The Polish Foreign Ministry has protested to Belarus over the violation of the Polish border, noting that the actions taken by the Belarusian authorities in recent weeks indicate a deliberate escalation of the situation.
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