/ world today news/ Is a political crisis on the horizon? What does ABV aim for by leaving the cabinet? Will Parvanov be able to assemble a center-left coalition against GERB? Will the feuding red parties put forward a common candidate? Do anti-establishment players stand a chance in the presidential vote? Ruslan Yordanov sought an answer to these questions from Gallup International sociologist Zivko Georgiev.
– Plevneliev is rather GERB’s Achilles’ heel, not their flag.
– The left wing wants to force Borissov to finally show his presidential candidate
– DPS signals that it is ready to support a general candidate of the left
– Mr. Georgiev, political events are developing rapidly. After ABV’s exit from the cabinet, have we already reached the stage of political crisis?
– Crisis is a strong word, rather let’s call it turbulence on the political scene, which is caused by several circumstances: the upcoming election cycle and the need for each party to remember, if it has forgotten, that it must look for its face and its identity . To prove that he is in the parliament, that is, in power, in order to realize his pre-election promises. The second prerequisite for the crisis is the relatively calm political life during the months since the formation of the government. Nothing was achieved that could easily be presented as a success, as an achievement, in the immediate future. Rather, the reforms did not happen or are being pushed through very painfully, so we are unlikely to expect an effect from them in the real economy and in households. We observe a combination of dissatisfaction, including and from the parties participating in the cabinet and the upcoming elections activate these searches. But I would not dramatize the crisis so much, because at least in this parliament there are obviously enough people willing to get involved in some new formula and for the National Assembly to complete its mandate, as well as the government in some reformed form.
– ABV took the initiative and came out in opposition. And at their party conference on Sunday, a circle of those willing to form a coalition was formed, including BSP, BDC and part of PF. Is a broad coalition being assembled against GERB?
– I wouldn’t draw God knows what conclusions from this event. Especially the small parties /which are preparing for the presidential and also for the looming extraordinary parliamentary vote in the spring/ naturally retain their interest in other possible alliance relations in a future configuration. All who are dissatisfied with the present, but not strong enough to rely solely on themselves, will continue to look for partners. In the case of ABV, the demand is in the center-left sector. I suspect that the presidential elections will be an occasion to activate such contacts. I do not exclude others, whom we do not see for now, to join this process. We have every reason to assume that a new restructuring of the political space is beginning.
– After the BSP congress, most observers are watching whether their coalition with ABV will succeed. Is the alliance more likely after the election of Cornelia Ninova?
– It is more possible, but it will not be easier. And in BSP, sufficiently influential groups would be firmly against rapprochement or coalition with ABV. I don’t know if they would not be found in ABV as well, but in any case there was an occasion in the left space, where things are not flourishing, to look for a platform for joint action. Otherwise, there is no way out for the left, or if there is a way out, it is in the emergence of a new radical entity, which is of no use to ABV, BSP, or others.
– After the congress in the BSP, there is a strong tension between the new leader Ninova and Mihail Mikov and Yanaki Stoilov, who have joined the opposition. The left wing, for example, is firmly against ties with Parvanov. Will the BSP shake again?
– After the radical change of the leadership configuration that took place at the congress, time must pass until the tension that is undoubtedly emerging subsides. If it does not settle, it means the BSP’s collapse to a large extent. If anyone out there has a sense of the common interest of the socialist party and the left, he should accept the results of the congress. After every congress where a significant change has taken place, there are five or six months of quite severe tensions. Let’s wait and see how the new leader will constitute the collective governing bodies – that will be a very important indicator.
– Yordan Tsonev also called on ABV and BSP to unite and make a strong left. What kind of aim does DPS give to reds?
– DPS acts especially in the light of the new Electoral Code and the tendency of GERB in different periods to play with all azimuths – both with the left, with the right, and with the patriotic / only with the Greens I have not heard that they are playing yet/. DPS needs a strong counterpoint to GERB. Only under this condition could the movement play the role in which we have known it for the last 25 years. Another sign that DPS gives through Tsonev, if he is authorized to be the speaker of such hints, is that in the upcoming presidential elections the movement is ready to support a common candidate of the left.
– In the center-left space, there is an uproar about the presidential candidacy – Kalfin’s name is circulating, but recently Parvanov also made a request that he can try despite the constitutional restrictions, if Bulgaria is a presidential republic.
– I cannot understand what Parvanov is aiming for. The presidential republic is a permanent idea of his, but it is not relevant at the moment. It is brought out to some future horizon. Perhaps, with this seething left, a tool is being sought to direct the processes on the right with the nomination of a presidential candidate. Because for the left, and for part of the right, this scenario is not advantageous – GERB withdraws its candidate at the last moment and they do not have technological time to prepare adequate election campaigns.
– It is interesting that everyone is lurking and waiting for GERB. It would be normal for parties to nominate their candidates early in order to have time for campaigns.
– For small parties, it is so, especially if they will play with relatively new faces or people who have to present with a new image. And in the absence of a resource, this requires more time. Most of the time it solves the problems of parties with less financial and media resources. For GERB, the winning tactic is to kick the ball to the last. If Borisov’s party does field a candidate in June, then they have overcome their fears that the additional delay will stimulate coalition searches among their opponents, which already makes them a threat. Not to mention that GERB will probably have a real internal party problem as to what decision to make. Plevneliev is clearly not a winning card. It is very convenient for the opponents of GERB, and it will hardly consume all the potential of the party, let alone add votes from above. Plevneliev is rather GERB’s Achilles heel, not their flag. Other possible candidacies beyond that of Boyko Borisov give birth to additional centers of power within GERB itself. Obviously, the prime minister is not eager to take advantage of this opportunity, since the presidency would remove him from the real power resource. If, however, he has observed what is happening with the previous presidents, he probably has reason to fear that he will lose control of the party. The situation is not easy for GERB either, although there are 3-4 figures who have serious chances to be selected.
– How do you read Borisov and Tsvetanov’s joke that ABV can turn Borisov into president with its exit?
– I don’t know if this line is intended as a joke. I see in her rather a kind of fear mimicked as a joke.
– A light comedy played out with Radan Kanev, who called for Plevneliev to be supported, and the president called his proposal an “intrigue”.
– This is another attempt by Kanev to unbalance GERB and stimulate their faster self-determination in the elections. Each of the leaders has a set of jokes. The point is that things in the country are not good socio-economically. The amended Electoral Code will anger many Bulgarians, if it has not already angered them.
– Are there any chances for “Dondukov” 2 figures outside the major parties who are popular – for example Slavi Trifonov or Tatiana Doncheva?
– There is one big unknown and we will have to go through its practical verification. If these elections are held under the prepared Electoral Code and compulsory voting is retained, it could activate the enormous potential of the punitive vote to the political class. Under the old system, when voting was a right and not an obligation, much of the protest vote was realized by not voting. But if you motivate these people through anger to vote, it is very possible that they will vote penally, which privileges anti-establishment candidates. We have not had an election in such a situation and even sociological research has not tested such a hypothesis. Copied from standartnews.com
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