Jakarta (ANTARA) – The year 2023 will soon pass, leaving the world getting hotter, which is not only caused by climate change, but also because of geopolitical rivalries triggered by a number of conflicts.
The Russian-Ukrainian war in Europe has not yet subsided, a new conflict has emerged in the Middle East, which has caused a serious humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
In other regions, tensions that have the potential to lead to conflict between the world’s major powers continue to haunt the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.
Polarization like that which occurred during the Cold War (1947-1991) seems to gain momentum in 2023, when a number of countries take opposing positions in responding to a conflict.
West vs Russia
The war in Ukraine, which was triggered by Russia’s massive invasion on February 24 last year, has dragged the United States and its allies into a multidimensional conflict with Russia.
In his speech on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Russian Pres Vladimir Putin accused the West of turning the conflict into an “anti-Russian project”.
He said the West planned to “ignite war in Europe” and fight Russia “using proxy forces.”
The war in Ukraine is like a modern version of the military conflicts during the Cold War, when two major world powers – the US and the Soviet Union – intervened in the wars in Korea (1950-1953), Vietnam (1955-1975), and Afghanistan (1979- 1989).
Ukraine is considered to have become a proxy for Western powers, supplying the country with funds and weapons, in the war against Russia.
As of October 31, 2023, Washington has disbursed 75.4 billion dollars (around Rp. 1.16 quadrillion) in the form of military and humanitarian assistance to Kiev. This figure does not include similar assistance from other Western countries which totaled 50 billion euros (around Rp. 771.21 trillion).
Not only that, the West and US allied countries in other regions have also imposed various sanctions, which not only target Russian figures deemed involved in the invasion of Ukraine, but also Russian companies and financial institutions.
The war in Ukraine, which according to the UN humanitarian agency has claimed the lives of at least 28,000 civilians, seems to have revived the Cold War between the world’s major powers, including China.
AS vs China
Despite calling for de-escalation of the conflict and mutual respect for sovereignty, China is still considered ambiguous because it has not yet firmly opposed or condemned Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.
Instead, Beijing alluded to a Cold War “mentality” in the conflict.
“A region’s security should not be fought for by strengthening or expanding military blocs,” wrote China’s Foreign Ministry on February 24, 2023, exactly one year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The statement appeared to be aimed at the US and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, who have taken a position not to confront Russia directly since the war broke out.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO so it does not receive security guarantees from the military bloc. However, the large amount of aid Kiev receives from individual NATO member states, especially arms aid from the US, could be seen as a “proxy war”.
China’s statement about “expanding the military bloc” seemed to warn that if Ukraine were accepted as a member of NATO, the conflict would expand because the defense alliance guarantees “that any attack on one of them is an attack on all of them”.
China’s tensions with the US are more often triggered by the issue of Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing considers part of “one China”.
This problem might not be as acute as it is now if Washington had consistently acknowledged the “One China” policy since establishing official diplomatic relations with Beijing on January 1 1979.
However, relying on the Taiwan Relations Act passed in the same year, the US instead carried out unofficial relations with Taiwan, which not only included economic cooperation, but also defense, including arms sales.
Throughout 2023, the US Congress approved four sales of ammunition to Taiwan with a total value of 1 billion dollars (around Rp. 15.42 trillion). In the latest sales plan, the US will send tactical communications equipment worth 300 million dollars.
Washington’s move, Beijing said, had “sent the wrong message to those seeking ‘Taiwan independence'”.
Relations between the US and Taiwan also appear to be getting more intense when the two of them make regular visits to each other.
After “stopping” in Los Angeles to meet US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on April 6, Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen received a visit from a number of US senators in Taipei a few days later.
This US ambiguity often makes its relations with China tense. Not infrequently, Beijing responds harshly, including a show of force by holding war games around Taiwan Bay.
Trade wars and tariff wars also still haunt US-China relations, and most recently, they were involved in the semiconductor war.
When US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco in November, the world hoped that tensions between the two countries would ease.
However, even though it resulted in a number of joint commitments, the meeting was still an opportunity to mutually confirm each other’s positions.
According to the White House, Biden emphasized during the meeting that the US will continue to defend its interests and the interests of US allies and partner countries.
While admitting that the US and China are engaged in competition, Biden said that the world hopes that the two countries can face this competition responsibly to prevent conflict, confrontation and a new Cold War.
2024 situation
Looking at the geopolitical situation throughout this year, competition between the world’s great powers still appears to be a threat to global security in 2024.
Especially if the conflict in Ukraine does not end soon, and the conflict in the Gaza Strip spreads to surrounding countries, as has happened in Lebanon and Yemen, and drags Iran and the US into the conflict.
The election results in Taiwan in January 2024 will also determine the intensity of its conflict with China. Beijing considers the DPP’s Lai Ching-te a separatist and if the ruling party’s candidate wins, tensions will continue to hang over the Taiwan Strait.
If tensions in the region escalate and trigger a Chinese military response, it is likely that the US will not remain silent.
The presidential election in Uncle Sam’s country next year will also be a determining factor in which direction the world’s geopolitical pendulum will swing.
If Donald Trump succeeds in fulfilling his ambition to reclaim the US presidency from Biden in 2024, the Republican candidate will likely change the direction of US foreign policy, which could actually escalate conflict and widen polarization between the world’s major powers.
2023-12-30 21:34:02
#Geopolitical #tensions #increasing #world #increasingly #polarized
