Geologist Manuel Sintubin: 'Gas plants are the wrong signal to get people involved in the climate battle'

31 july 2021
Today at
02:00

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The state of emergency is so great that we have to avoid every extra molecule of CO₂, says geologist and ecomodernist Manuel Sintubin. We urgently need to arm ourselves against the consequences of climate change, because ‘we have forgotten that nature can play hard’.

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‘I still have an old badge of ‘nuclear energy, no thanks’ somewhere, but I can’t find it anymore,’ says Manuel Sintubin with a smile. The geology professor specializes in earthquakes, but is also a frequently heard critical voice in debates about energy and climate and a figurehead of the ecomodernists, a movement that strives for a sustainable society, including the use of nuclear energy. In doing so, Sintubin clashes with the traditional green movement, which according to him “doesn’t move with the times and clings to the anti-nuclear movement of the 1970s.”

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When the nuclear phase-out was decided in 2003, he looked at nuclear energy even differently. “We have not yet been confronted with the facts about the climate emergency. Now it is. That is why I find it difficult that we still talk so much about new gas-fired power stations. That’s toe-curling. It is not wise to shut down the current generation of nuclear power stations early.’

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‘Every bit of warming matters, every year matters, every choice matters’, Sintubin quotes a 2018 climate report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. atmosphere and you don’t have to compensate or take it out.’

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In the fight against climate change, there is one goal: to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions as soon as possible. If we succeed in this worldwide, we will stabilize the climate at a warming of about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius. Then we have to try to remove CO₂ from the air.

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We do not have the luxury of discarding CO₂-free nuclear power plants.

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‘Opening a gas-fired power station will lead to more CO₂ emissions for years to come. That is excused by the European emission rights system ETS (which in theory pushes power stations elsewhere that pollute even more from the market, ed.), but I have a hard time with that. That is a wrong decision from a global perspective. We no longer have the luxury of discarding CO₂-free nuclear power plants. The promise that gas-fired power stations will later run on hydrogen is wishful thinking that we don’t care about in this state of emergency,” says Sintubin.

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‘The Vivaldi coalition thinks it has brought clarity about the nuclear phase-out, but the reality proves the opposite: we are still discussing whether or not to keep two nuclear reactors open. Nobody disputes that the nuclear phase-out will start next year, but it is uncertain when the last reactor will close: in 2025 or ten or twenty years later. If that decision had been made earlier, the Minister of Energy could have profiled himself with renewable energy instead of with new gas-fired power stations.’

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During lectures in parish halls, Sintubin wants to tell a positive story when people ask what they can do themselves. “They shouldn’t go vegan,” he says. ‘But anyone who occasionally replaces the steak with something vegetarian already makes a contribution. However, the government now says that it will produce more CO₂ first and that it will only get better later. That is a very bad message to pass on to everyone.’

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Energy specialists say that even with two nuclear reactors, gas plants will have to be added to keep the lights on in the winter.

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Sintubin: ‘That hasn’t been clarified yet. A study by the CREG (the energy regulator, ed.) says that we may not need new gas-fired power stations, partly because the winters are getting milder.’

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Who dares to predict that we will not have a severe winter in the next ten years?

Sintubin: ‘It also depends on how much scarcity you are willing to allow and the risk you take of not having electricity for a few hours in certain situations. We have very strict parameters, but we could differentiate more. In the US they are used to going out of power every now and then. This scarcity can quickly lead to more innovation and new solutions. In the exceptional situation in 2018 (when many nuclear power stations were shut down, ed.), solutions were suddenly found, such as power boats from Turkey.’

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You also want to keep the door open for a nuclear renaissance.

Sintubin: ‘We should focus primarily on what is cheap and works: offshore wind. Thorium reactors and other new nuclear technology are wishful thinking that we cannot take into account. Keep the research going, maybe it’s part of the solution in 2050 for us, Africa or Southeast Asia, where the challenges are even greater.’

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14,000 scientists warned this week that climate tipping points have been reached. There have been severe floods in our country in recent weeks.

Sintubin: ‘Scientists have been saying for decades that climate change is making average storms heavier and increasing the chance of extremes. Nobody denies that yet. We now see that a blockage of the jet stream (very strong wind at a height of 10 kilometers, ed.) simultaneously leads to a heat wave in Canada and a flood in our area.’

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Manuel Sintubin (56)

Professor of geodynamics at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at KU Leuven.
Is specialized in earthquakes, but also a critical voice on climate and energy.
Is a figurehead of ecomodernism in Flanders. He profiles himself as a proponent of nuclear energy.

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Are such natural disasters more likely to happen?

Sintubin: ‘A volcanic eruption on an uninhabited island produces beautiful television images, but is not a natural disaster. It only becomes that when people are exposed and when they are vulnerable. We saw that clearly in the Vesder valley, with a lot of damage to the houses of the weakest in the valley, but not to the villas on the slopes.’

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‘We would have been better off investing the costs of that heavy damage in mitigation (prevention, ed.) of or adaptation to climate change. We need to find the right balance between the two, but in this state of emergency, adaptation becomes crucial. That is not treating the symptoms, but a matter of being prepared for what is potentially coming our way, such as by building earthquake-resistant.’

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‘The floods of 1953 were a serious reminder, but we have forgotten that nature can be harsh. We must learn to live with risks and increase resilience. During floods, young people in a new residential area suffer from the mayor and the sewerage system, but the 80-year-old farmer used to put her furniture on stones.’

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‘New Delta plans are needed, here and in Africa. As a geologist, I choose solutions that go along with nature. There is no point in trying to counteract by building higher dykes. We have to give the rivers more space again. There was no disaster in the Demer Valley because the river does have room there. On the coast we need to expand the dunes. We will irrevocably have to return some of the polders to the sea one day.’

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We will have to return some of the polders to the sea one day.

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No coastal mayor will want to give up part of his municipality.

Sintubin: ‘We have forgotten to think in the long term, but citizens and politicians have to do it. Why don’t we do like the Native Americans, who consider the impact on seven generations later?’

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After the tough battle against CO₂ emissions, major efforts in adaptation await us. That is not a pleasant prospect.

Sintubin: ‘That is what is called a wicked problem in English, virtually unsolvable: we have to move towards the combination of mitigation and adaptation that yields the most profit the fastest. Adaptation is also the Blue Deal of Minister of the Environment Zuhal Demir (N-VA), a great combination of maximally capturing a lot of water and allowing it to penetrate into the soil. We are tackling the drought by replenishing the water tables.’

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Can the concrete stop come soon?

Sintubin: ‘That is such an obvious thing to do. Why do we keep spinning the pot? An extinction policy in flood-prone areas is the least that should be done.’

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Geologist Manuel Sintubin: ‘Gas plants are the wrong signal to get people involved in the climate battle’