◀ Anchor ▶
The results of yesterday’s general election were somewhat different from the exit poll predictions of the three terrestrial broadcasters, which were announced at 6 p.m. right after the end of voting.
As the number of close races in many constituencies increases and the advance voting rate increases, improving the accuracy of predictions is becoming a difficult task.
Reporter Kyung-mi Lee will report.
◀ Report ▶
MBC predicted the number of seats for major political parties based on the joint exit poll of the three terrestrial broadcasters during the vote counting broadcast for the 22nd National Assembly general election at 6 p.m. yesterday.
The Democratic Party of Korea and the Democratic Alliance together predicted 184 to 197 seats, and the People Power Party and People’s Future together predicted 85 to 99 seats, but there was some difference from the actual vote count results.
According to the exit poll announcement, it was expected that Democratic Party candidate Ryu Sam-young would compete with People Power Party candidate Na Kyung-won in Dongjak, which was classified as one of the battlegrounds in Seoul, but in the actual results, candidate Na Kyung-won was elected by an 8% point margin.
[나경원 당선인/국민의힘]
″After seeing the exit survey, everyone said I went somewhere earlier, but I went to Yonggung.″
Unlike the presidential election, where the entire country is essentially one large district, there are 254 districts for the general election.
There are many closely contested constituencies and a large number of candidates running, which increases the possibility of error, but the rising rate of early voting has also become a variable.
[김진/전 중앙일보 논설위원 (어제, MBC 개표방송)]
“Early voting accounts for about 45% of all voting. So, it’s almost half.”
According to election law, you cannot be asked who voted for in relation to early voting.
Therefore, the exit poll forecast immediately after the polls close is announced by adding the results of the exit poll on the day of the poll plus pre-voting corrections through telephone opinion polls, etc.
In this early voting, the proportion of people in their 60s was found to be the highest, but the task of predicting exit polls remains to increase accuracy in response to voter turnout variables by age group.
This is Gyeongmi Lee from MBC News.
Video Editing: Choi Moon-jeong
2024-04-11 11:19:26
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