It will be very important in the coming days and weeks to closely monitor the epidemiological situation in the United Kingdom, says biostatistician Geert Molenberghs (KU Leuven/UHasselt). “The Indian variant worries me. In the United Kingdom, 1 percent of the infections could be linked to that variant in April, at the moment this is already 75 percent. It can go very fast.”
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Molenberghs calls the measures that come into effect on 9 June “ambitious”. “It does not come as a big surprise, but it is still a large package of relaxation at once. The number of occupied beds in intensive care may have fallen faster than expected, but at the moment there is still a lot of virus circulating in society. The incidence (the number of corona cases per 100,000 inhabitants, ed.) is currently about 230, making us the fourth worst country in the ECDC ranking (ranking of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, with 31 European countries). .”
The biostatistician is particularly concerned about the Indian variant, which is on the rise in the United Kingdom. “The Indian variant currently accounts for 1.4 percent of confirmed corona infections. That may seem small, but can quickly add up, as we have seen in the UK. The variants show that it is still necessary to remain cautious with international travel.”
According to Molenberghs, it is difficult to estimate how the figures will evolve in the coming weeks. “Within three weeks we will see where we stand, and what the impact has been of the relaxation that will take effect on June 9.”
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