The preliminary estimate on the trend of pil exceeds analysts’ forecasts in the third quarter e does not confirm the decline expected byParliamentary Budget Office. According to the statistical institute, the gross domestic product adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, it increased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter and by 2.6% in trend terms, after + 0.1% in the first quarter and the +1.1 of the second. On October 19, the UPB had, on the contrary, bet on a -0.2% warning that the figure was set to deteriorate in the fourth quarter. The same Update note to the Def of the government Dragons indicated that in the fourth quarter the Italian economy would contract after the “slightly negative” variation of the third, bringing the country into recession. It should be borne in mind that the preliminary estimate is anyway subject to variations, even sensitive ones, all the more so in a period characterized by extraordinarily high inflation. The governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco commenting on the data on savings day, he said that “caution in the context of great uncertainty such as the current one “.
It is true that in August the industrial production held and Istat had already pointed out that if the trend was confirmed also in September despite the energy price increases in the third quarter, there would have been a modest economic increase. But manufacturing did not weigh on the 0.5% increase: the variation is in fact the synthesis of a decrease in value added both in the sector of‘agricultureforestry and fishing, both in that ofindustrywe read in the Istat note, while i services probably thanks to the good performance of tourism have registered an increase. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the domestic component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component. The seasonally adjusted data also takes into account the fact that “the third quarter of 2022 – explains the statistical institute – had three working days more than the previous quarter and one working day less than the third quarter of 2021”.
The change in GDP already acquired for 2022 after the third quarter figure is equal to 3.9%. The acquisition, which indicates the possible year-end result with a fourth quarter with zero growth, is higher than the last forecast of the Nadefwhich estimated for 2022 a GDP at +3.3, already up compared to 3.1% of the Def of April.
In the rest of the Eurozone, GDP is still growing but the trend is slowing down: GDP increased by 0.2%. Among the Member States for which data are available, the Sweden (+ 0.7%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Italy (+ 0.5%), Portugal and Lithuania (both + 0.4%), explains the EU statistical office. . With regard to inflationthat of the euro area is estimated at + 10.7% in October 2022, up from 9.9% in September.
