GDP, reopening and support: how much the Italian economy will grow in 2021

The new programmatic framework is being defined and will be included in the Economic and Financial Document due by mid-April. According to what has been anticipated by the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, it is to be expected that the GDP will suffer a “slight” contraction in the first quarter, then recover in the second and accelerate in the third and fourth quarters of the year.

The acceleration of growth is played on the combination of several factors, the first of which is the expectation that the immunization campaign from coronavirus, if it is possible to vaccinate at the rate of 500 thousand doses per day, it could lead to making most of the 51 million Italians immune from Covid by the end of the summer. Operation that passes both from the necessary overcoming of the enormous differences recorded so far between the regions (on the ability to implement vaccination plans and respect the priority criteria for the most vulnerable age groups and categories, without exception), and from the availability of doses to be injected .

Loading…

The expected effect from the reopening after Easter and from the stimuli

The other element, also cited by Daniele Franco in the webinar organized by Bloomberg, is that starting from the days following Easter it is possible to gradually reopen the production activities now stopped due to the restrictions imposed by the latest government measure. Finally, the effect of the measures to support the economy is taken into account which, after the launch of the last 32 billion decree, will be re-proposed with the next budget variance, the extent of which is being defined (we think about to 15-20 billion).

Other interventions will follow during the year. Franco explains that the support measures will be phased out “towards the end of 2021”. An additional 0.3% growth is counted as the first effect of the Recovery and Resilience Plan that will be sent to Brussels by the end of April, to which the expected boost from the latest “Sostegni” decree and any new impetus deriving from subsequent interventions to stimulate recovery.

The unknowns

Obviously this is a scenario subjected to the realization of several variables. Certainly, if the vaccination campaign did not respect the timetable set by the Government, the immunization of a large part of the population would be postponed to the last months of the year, with implicit effects on the recovery. The support of tourism is to be considered fundamental, in the summer season which traditionally sees our country as one of the favorite destinations of tourist flows from abroad (and from this point of view it will be necessary to understand how vaccination campaigns will evolve and if the constraints imposed will disappear. cross-border travel, most recently by the United Kingdom).

–