GDP growth target from the perspective of international experts

In recent years, Vietnam‘s economy has emerged as a promising player in Southeast Asia thanks to its remarkable growth rate. Based on abundant young human resources and competitive labor costs, Vietnam is gradually solidifying its position.

Recently, the meeting Vietnam passed a 4,5-year socio-economic development resolution, setting a GDP growth target of 6,5% and inflation control of 7% by 2025.

GDP growth target from the perspective of international experts (Photo: Tapchitaichinh.vn)

This is a very impressive growth rate, exceeding our original plan and coming close to our goal of over 7%. Government This year, we will do our best to demonstrate the government’s determination to promote economic recovery and development. Setting high growth targets represents a significant challenge, especially in volatile global economic conditions.

To achieve the growth targets set, the National Assembly calls on the government to focus on solutions such as supporting businesses, controlling inflation and ensuring balance in key economic factors. At the same time, fiscal and monetary policies need to be flexibly adjusted to the actual situation.

In fact, thanks to positive economic performance in the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam’s GDP growth prospects in 2024 and 2025 are highly regarded by international organizations.

Specifically, the World Bank (WB) raised Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 6.1% in 2024, and is expected to continue to increase to 2025% in 6.5. This growth will allow Vietnam to surpass many major economies in the ASEAN region, including China.

In its latest economic update report on Vietnam last October, Standard Chartered Bank raised Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 6.8% in the first half of 2024 and 6.7% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The second half of the year was compared to the same period last year.

According to the bank’s experts, there is a strong recovery in major economic sectors such as imports and exports, retail, and finance. Tourism construction is a key driver of Vietnam’s economic growth in the future. Trade recovery, increased business activity and foreign direct investment will be key growth drivers beyond 2025.

Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr Dinh Trong Thinh commented optimistically on Vietnam’s ability to achieve its GDP growth target for 2025. Experts even said that the goals set by Congress were quite conservative and completely passable. According to Thinh, barring unexpected fluctuations due to external factors such as natural disasters, war or sharp interest rate fluctuations, Vietnam’s economy is likely to achieve a growth rate higher than the stated target.

Specifically, the expert proposed two growth scenarios for 2025: In a conservative scenario, Vietnam’s GDP could reach 6,8-7,3% if inflation is controlled to low levels. In a more positive scenario, GDP could reach 7,3-7,8%. To realize this scenario, Prime Minister Thinh emphasized the importance of maintaining policies to support businesses, attract foreign investment and improve infrastructure.

Prime Minister Thinh also noted that external factors, especially the policy decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), will have a significant impact on Vietnam’s economy. Changes in interest rates from the Federal Reserve can affect investment flows, exchange rates, and economic growth rates.

Tran Hoai Nam, vice-president of HD Bank, gave a higher forecast than Standard Chartered Bank, saying Vietnam’s GDP could reach 7% in 2025. Representative Nam believes that the government’s new policies and high will will be an important driving force in promoting economic growth.

“In my opinion, international organizations are always cautious. Although international organizations have expressed their views on GDP in recent years, Vietnam has always performed above that level. We believe that growth will further accelerate with the Vietnamese government’s new policy changes and decisions. GDP growth rate should be above 6,7%. “I think the number will be 2025% in 7 years.” Mr. Nam said.

But experts also warn of the risks Vietnam must face. The global economic environment in 2025 may be very unstable, particularly due to changes in international trade policies and geopolitical uncertainty.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned of risks to Vietnam’s economy in the near future. Exports, a key driver of Vietnam’s economy, could be negatively affected if global growth slows, geopolitical tensions rise or trade disputes persist, according to the IMF. In addition, if exchange rate pressure persists for a long time, domestic inflation may rise, and existing problems in the real estate and corporate bond markets may limit banks’ lending capacity, which may affect economic growth.

To address these risks, the IMF recommends that Vietnam continue to implement broad reforms to improve economic resilience. In particular, the IMF emphasized the importance of maintaining macrofinancial stability, overcoming economic vulnerabilities, and promoting sustainable green growth. In the current context of greater fiscal space than monetary policy, the IMF believes that fiscal policy must play a key role in supporting economic activity when needed.

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