GDP “will reach + 5.8% in 2021, driven by household consumption (expected to grow by 4.7% compared to 2020) and private investments (+ 16%)”: this is what emerges from an exclusive analysis of EY, released on the occasion of the second day of the EY Digital Summit. The main driving force behind this estimated growth is the dynamism of domestic demand: primarily household consumption, which is expected to grow by 4.7% compared to 2020 and private investments by around + 16%.
In addition, sustained growth (even more than 20%) is expected in consumer components related to clothing, transport, and hotel and restaurant expenses, mainly as a rebound following the restrictions in place last year.
A more moderate growth is expected in the food sector (under 5%), in expenses for the purchase of furniture and in health care costs, sectors which, however, in 2020, had been affected in a less disruptive manner by the impacts of the health crisis. As regards supply, however, despite the severe crisis caused by the pandemic, in the summer months the industry began to recover (+ 0.8% last July) and robust growth is expected at the end of 2021. In particular , the Italian manufacturing industry according to EY estimates will position itself between + 10% and + 15%, recovering the pre-crisis values around mid-2022, and with growth performances that even surpass the rival German, French and Spanish industries .
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