In 2022, GDP will grow by only one +1.9 percent “With a broad downward revision (-2.2)” compared to the October estimates, when all forecasts were in agreement on + 4%. The esteem Study center of Confindustria adding, among other things, that it refers to a scenario in which “the duration of the war is a crucial variable ”and assuming that from July it will end or decrease uncertainty and tensions. For the experts of the association of industrialists, compared to the + 2.3% of growth acquired for “the excellent rebound of last year”, the GDP would fall by 0.2% in the first quarter and by 0.5 in the second, bringing the country “into one technical recession albeit of limited size “. Consequently the return of the product to pre-Covid levels “slide from the second quarter of this year to the first of the next “.
“Even in the less complicated scenario, the numbers” released by the report “are very frightening”, said the president of Confindustria Carlo Bonomi. “They give substance to a growing alarm, and unfortunately unheard, that Confindustria began to launch even before the war, when a slowdown was already in sight”. “These scenarios and these numbers should be very serious general alarm for the institutions and politics of our country “. “The attempt throughout 2021, faced with our growing appeal to the enormous risks of the steep rise in energy prices and mining and agricultural commodities – continues the industrial leader – was to repeat that cost increases and the supply difficulties to production they were ephemeral and temporal phenomena “.
The caveat, which obviously aims to get more resources from the government, is that “in many ways we see around us today a similar trend: believe that maybe in a few weeks the conflict in Ukraine end and everything returns as in pre-Covid 2019. It wasn’t true last year, it wasn’t true in this 2022 ″. It is therefore, he says, “the time has come abandon these risky illusions. And to adopt structural and adequate measures “.
Against the figures of the forecasts of the Confindustria Study Center, the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco speaking at the workshop ‘The scenario of economics and finance’ organized by the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, he explained that in Def expected next week in the council of ministers there will be a “cautious forecast on GDP, because there is great uncertainty. Like last year, it is better to be proved wrong for being pessimistic rather than too optimistic ”. An estimate of around 2.8% is assumed against the + 4.7% included in the Nadef last autumn. The minister recalled that the executive intervened “several times to mitigate the increase in the cost of energy, they were allocated so far 19 billionof which 14 cover the first two quarters of 2022. We invented the system of tax credits for businesses to cover energy costs and we have pulled down for the first time in Italy fuel costs by 25 cents. I believe that these interventions especially on the business side will have to be continued and further interventions are certainly possible “.
–
