Expensive energy drives inflation
– Istat estimates that inflation growth should continue in the coming months and then slow down, albeit with uncertain timing and intensity. ” growth (+ 5.8% from + 1.7% in 2021) while the GDP deflator will mark + 3.4% (+ 0.5% in 2021) “. The report continues: “Assuming that the upward pressure on commodity prices is contained and in the presence of a stabilization of oil and the exchange rate, inflation is expected to partially decelerate next year”.
Two points less growth, the reasons –
The new economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards compared to the estimates released in December, before the war in Ukraine, mainly due to the downsizing of world trade, the depreciation of the euro exchange rate against the dollar, the sharp rise of oil prices. The revision was about two percentage points, going from 4.7% to 2.8%.
Employment, positive prospects
– The outlook remains positive on the employment front, with an evolution, in the two-year period 2022-23, which will be “in line with the improvement in economic activity with a more pronounced increase in 2022 (+ 2.5%) compared to 2023 ( + 1.6%) “. In the report “The prospects for the Italian economy in 2022-23”, we then read that the progressive increase in employment will be reflected, according to estimates, “also on the unemployment rate, which would drop significantly this year (8.4 %) and, to a lesser extent, in 2023 (8.2%) “.
Consumption improving
– On the household consumption front, Istat “for 2022 expects an increase in real terms (+ 2.3%), which would be accompanied by a slight increase in the propensity to consume”. The improvement in consumption should also continue in 2023, “albeit with a more contained intensity (+ 1.6%)”. Consumption by the Public Administration should also increase over the forecast horizon with growth of 0.5% in 2022 and 0.6% in 2023.
“The phase of marked worsening of the climate of consumer confidence in March and April – they explain to Istat – showed a slight attenuation in May, when the expectations of a rise in prices were reduced. The propensity to save, still higher than pre-crisis levels, could constitute an element of stimulus for consumption in the coming months which, at the same time, would be negatively affected by high inflation “.
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