GDP: At 2.3% in the second quarter of 2024 [γραφήματα] – 2024-09-10 15:06:03

The Greek economy (GDP) “ran” at a rate of 2.3% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the data published today by ELSTAT.

Based on these data for the first half the growth was 2.15%.

In particular, based on the available seasonally adjusted data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms, during the 2nd quarter of 2024 showed an increase of 1.1%, compared to the 1st quarter of 2024, while compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023 showed an increase of 2.3%.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms in Q2 2024 showed an increase of 2.7% compared to Q2 2023.

The changes of the main macro-economic parameters in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes are as follows:

1. Quarterly GDP changes

– Total final consumer spending increased by 0.3% compared to the 1st quarter of 2024.

– Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.8% compared to the 1st quarter of 2024.

– Exports of goods and services showed an increase of 2.5% compared to the 1st quarter of 2024. Exports of goods increased by 5.2%, while exports of services increased by 1.0%.

-Imports of goods and services showed an increase of 6.1% compared to the 1st quarter of 2024. Imports of goods increased by 7.8%, while imports of services increased by 2.2%.

2. Annual changes in GDP

– The total final consumption expenditure showed an increase of 0.9% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023.

– Gross fixed capital investment increased by 3.9% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023.

– Exports of goods and services increased by 2.1% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023. Exports of goods increased by 2.0%, while exports of services increased by 2.8%.

– Imports of goods and services showed an increase of 9.6% compared to the 2nd quarter of 2023. Imports of goods increased by 10.5% and imports of services increased by 6.9%.

The latest estimates

It is worth noting that 3 days ago, UBS maintained its forecast for Greece of 2.5% GDP growth in 2024, given the high-frequency data for the second quarter (industrial production, auto sales, consumer lending, business trust).

The house predicts that growth will accelerate to 3% in 2025, a performance that puts the bar 1% higher than the consensus of economists, who predict next year’s growth at 2%.

The assessment that Greece can achieve growth of 2.4% in the next two years is formulated by the Economic Analysis and Research Unit of Eurobank.

In particular, according to the group’s chief economist Tassos Anastasatos, the Greek economy recorded a real GDP growth rate of 2% in 2023, outperforming the Eurozone for the third consecutive year, with private consumption and the good course of tourism as the main driving forces, while, in contrast, investments registered only a modest increase.

According to Eurobank’s analysis, risks surrounding the estimates include the potential for escalation of geostrategic pressures, possible persistence of inflation that would potentially slow down the rate cut trajectory, delays in the disbursement of TAA funds or suboptimal utilization of funds, delays or lack of ambition in the implementation of TAA-related and national reforms, persistence of external sector imbalances, climate risks, as well as the high dependence of the development model on tourism and consumption.

Growth has the potential to accelerate to 2.4% in 2025 and 2026, as the Eurozone, which is the country’s main trading partner, will also pick up TAA projects, both on the loan and grant side , will approach a greater degree of maturity. The latter is important in order to expand the productive potential of the Greek economy, to address the investment gap and to prevent overheating trends.

Source OT