Gaza War: What do recent Israeli attacks tell us about Netanyahu’s next move? – BBC News Arabic

In January 2020, Iranian General Qasem Soleimani landed at Baghdad airport from Damascus on an overnight flight. Soleimani was the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, an elite secret unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard that specializes in foreign operations.

The agency oversees the arming, training, financing and management of pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and other countries. Soleimani was probably the second most powerful man in Iran at the time, after the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

As soon as Soleimani’s convoy left the airport, he was hit by a missile fired by a drone that killed him instantly.

Although Israel provided intelligence to track down its “arch enemy,” the drone belonged to the United States. The assassination order was issued by then US President Donald Trump, not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Speaking about Soleimani’s assassination, former US President Donald Trump said in a speech: “I will never forget that Netanyahu let us down.” He said in a later interview that he had expected Israel to have a “bigger role” in the attack, and added with a hint of guilt: “Israel wants to fight Iran until the last american soldier.

While Trump’s version of events is disputed, it was believed at the time that Netanyahu, who praised the assassination, was concerned that direct Israeli intervention could lead to a wide-scale attack against Israel, either from Iran directly, or from his proxies in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

Israel was fighting a covert war against Iran, but each side was careful to keep the fight within certain limits, lest they provoke the other side and turn the situation into a “wider conflict.” .”

Four years later, in April this year, Netanyahu himself ordered Israeli warplanes to bomb a building in an Iranian diplomatic compound, killing two Iranian generals and others with them.

In July of this year, the Prime Minister of Israel gave the green light to assassinate Hezbollah army chief Fouad Shukr in an air strike in Beirut.

Then in July, Israel’s prime minister authorized the assassination of Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military commander, in an airstrike in Beirut.

The US president reportedly responded by criticizing Netanyahu, according to a new book by Bob Woodward, which says President Joe Biden was “surprised” by the Israeli prime minister’s willingness to stir up conflict. the White House had been trying to end it for months. .

President Biden is said to have said at the time: “You know, more and more people are seeing Israel around the world that you are a transient state. “

His successor criticized the same prime minister, who one US president described as too cautious, for being “too aggressive.”

What separates the two events is, of course, October 7, 2023 – the bloodiest day in Israel’s history and a political, military and intelligence failure of catastrophic proportions. But what unites them is that Netanyahu is against the will of the United States.

These two factors help us to understand how Israel continues to manage the current war.

Israel’s recent wars ended after a few weeks, after international pressure mounted to the point that the United States forced a ceasefire.

The strength and scale of Hamas’ attack on Israel, and its impact on Israeli society and its sense of security, means that these are all signs that this war is different from all other conflicts.

For the American administration, which pumps billions of dollars in arms to Israel, the killing and suffering of Palestinian civilians in Gaza is extremely “sad” and politically harmful to the American administration. For Washington’s critics in the region, the apparent inability of the superpower when it comes to influencing the biggest recipient of American support is quite surprising.

Even when, last April, American fighter jets faced Iranian attacks on Israel, which proves that its security depends on American support, Israel continued to resist efforts to change the course of the war.

In the summer, Israel decided to escalate the conflict with Hezbollah, without seeking permission from the US.

Netanyahu learned from his 20-year experience as Prime Minister of Israel that he can resist American pressure, or ignore it altogether. Netanyahu knows that the United States, in a presidential election year, cannot take steps that will force him to change course (and he believes he is fighting the enemies of the United States as well).

When it comes to the latest rise, it would be a mistake to assume that Netanyahu is operating outside the Israeli political mainstream. Instead, the emphasis has been harder on directing strikes against Hezbollah, as well as strikes against Iran.

When the United States and France proposed, last September, a ceasefire in Lebanon, criticism came from Israel’s opposition. The left-wing parties in Israel rejected it as well as the right-wing parties.

Israel is determined to continue its wars now, not because it feels it can withstand international pressure, but because its level of tolerance for the The risks they face have also changed since October 7.

Over the years, Hezbollah has expressed its desire to “march to the Galilee,” northern Israel. Today, as Israelis saw with their own eyes, armed men storming homes, this threat cannot be contained, but must be eliminated.

Israel’s perception of threats has also changed. The notions of “military red lines” in the region have disappeared. Many events took place in the past year that – until recently – would have led to an all-out war, with a barrage of bombs and missiles falling on Tehran, Beirut, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem.

Israel killed the leader of Hamas while he was a guest of the Iranians in Tehran. He killed many Hezbollah leaders, including the party’s former Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah. He killed top-ranking Iranian officials in diplomatic buildings in Syria.

Hezbollah launched more than 9,000 missiles, shells, and drones at Israeli cities, including ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. The Houthis in Yemen also fired missiles at Israeli cities, which were intercepted by Israeli defenses in the skies of central Israel.

Iran has launched attacks on Israel twice in the past six months, using more than 500 drones and missiles.

Israel invaded Lebanon.

Any of these situations would have provoked a regional war in the past. However, failing to do so would change the way the Israeli Prime Minister – usually cautious and risk-averse – decides on his next move.