With reactions to the ongoing carnage in Gaza now preoccupying political leaders in Europe and America, the Israeli government appears indifferent to the impact a further escalation of the crisis with a military operation in Rafah may have on international and regional balances.
The Israeli government, despite the fact that within the week it presented to Hamas a renewed proposal for a cease-fire, hastened to clarify, in response to international pressure not to proceed to Rafah, how the operation will take place. In fact, Benjamin Netanyahu himself claimed that the operation has been launched and will take place regardless of whether Hamas agrees to the truce proposal.
Hostages instead of a truce
The agreement that was discussed during the week and for which Hamas initially did not appear particularly “warm” initially provided for a ceasefire for about 40 days with the gradual release of 20 to 33 Israeli hostages and at the same time dozens of Palestinian prisoners. In a second phase, it provided for the “restoration of a sustainable ceasefire”, during which the rest of the hostages will be released and the bodies of the dead hostages will be given in exchange for the release of other Palestinian prisoners.
The Israeli side’s refusal to link the operation to the cease-fire proposal aims on the one hand to ensure that the initiative of the movements remains in its hands and on the other hand to create a suffocating framework that could force Hamas to accept the first phase of the agreement, but not to commit Israel to accept the second phase and a more permanent solution. Hamas, however, has repeatedly called for a permanent ceasefire to accept any deal that would lead to the release of the hostages. Israel rejects Hamas’ request as absurd. In this context, Egypt invited the teams of negotiators to Cairo in an attempt to resolve their differences.
Resistance in Gaza
At the same time, however, that the scenarios for what will happen next on these fronts were giving and taking, international media recorded intense activity of the Palestinian resistance inside the Strip for the first time in several months. According to reports, for at least two 24 hours fierce fighting between armed Palestinians and Israeli forces raged in the central Gaza Strip, while there was an increase in the intensity of shelling from the Israeli side locally in central Gaza as well as in other parts of the Strip.
One factor that appears to be weighing heavily on the developments is US pressure on all sides to stop hostilities and close the cycle of tension that opened on October 7, 2023 so that a long-term solution can be found. In addition to the public statements of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who visited Israel again, in which he makes it clear that Washington is against the operation in Rafah and calls for an immediate ceasefire, reports reveal the secret discussions and proposals of the US to the Tel Aviv.
In essence the dilemma they pose is simple: either you will not listen to us and continue your self-destructive policy by attacking Gaza resulting in your further international isolation, or you will listen to us and have a normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, a peacekeeping force Arab-led Gaza and a US-led security alliance against Iran. This comes as rumors circulated last week of the imminent issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli leadership and Hamas officials by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
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