“This is due to the end of the winter season, when heating oil is used in the aggregates, and the demand for diesel is declining. The price of petrol is usually higher during the summer than for diesel. We will soon see that petrol will be more expensive, as we have been used to in previous years, “Štěpán Křeček, chief economist at BH Securities, told Práva on Monday.
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According to CCS, Natural 95 has risen in price by about CZK 3.20 per liter to an average of CZK 45.93 since the beginning of May, diesel has risen in price by almost CZK 1.30 and sold on average at CZK 46.24 per liter on Sunday.
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“Wholesale prices across Europe are rising for petrol and falling for diesel. In the coming days, petrol will be more expensive again, “confirmed Práva, an analyst at Finlord Boris Tomčiak. According to him, another increase in petrol prices can be expected next week, by up to several dozen pennies.
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According to Křeček, the oil market began to calm down when its price oscillated around $ 110 per barrel, on Monday it was around $ 113. “Unfortunately, the price will not fall significantly below $ 110, and at these levels we can expect prices to stabilize at gas stations,” said Křeček.
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Tomčiak expects that world demand for oil will be lower than originally expected. In addition, the supply of oil will increase and individual producers will try to make up for the supply shortage from Russia.
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A lower tax will help
“According to the local Ministry of Energy, the USA should increase production to a new record. Canada, Brazil and China are also investing more in increasing mining. The OPEC cartel also has the capacity to increase production, “said Tomčiak.
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It will help motorists to start paying the excise tax on petrol and diesel by CZK 1.50 per liter from next Wednesday. The price, including VAT, could fall by about CZK 1.80 per liter.
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This should be reflected in prices relatively quickly. “It simply came to our notice then. We have already experienced a reduction in the excise duty on diesel by a koruna last year, and at that time it was reflected in the final price by up to 95 percent in two months. Now the margins of the pumper are being checked and the situation is under greater scrutiny, so the reduction of the excise tax will be reflected more quickly, “says Křeček.
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According to Tomčiak, the price reduction will also be rapid. “I don’t think gas stations would keep their margins to themselves,” he added.
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The reduced excise tax is to apply until the end of September, but according to Křeček, it is possible that it will be longer in the end. “It is always difficult to set a suitable moment for these measures. I am afraid that high inflation will bother us for at least the whole of this year. The measure may be here with us for a longer period of time, “said Křeček. However, according to the economist, at least for the time being, the abolition of the mandatory blending of bio-ingredients into fuels with effect from July will not bring relief.
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“In order to meet the emission regulations at the European level, the mixing of bio-ingredients must take place. I’m afraid that the manufacturers will be afraid to cancel the mixing, “said Křeček. Even if there was a legal analysis that it was possible to stop the blending and there would be no fines, most refineries still have biofuel contracts.
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“So we are talking about next year at the earliest, when some biofuel contracts would not have to be extended. The effect of the abolition of blending will not be felt this year, “he concluded.
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