“In the next two weeks, gasoline could become cheaper by about 50 pennies, diesel by up to 70 pennies per liter,” Finlord analyst Boris Tomčiak told Práv. Gasoline prices should thus fall below CZK 35 per liter and diesel will drop below CZK 37.
According to Tomčiak, oil fell from 85 to 80 dollars per barrel towards the beginning of the year. “The koruna is also strengthening against the dollar. In the last month, it went from 23 crowns to 22.36 CZK per dollar, which contributes to the reduction of final prices by a few more pennies per liter,” he added.
“The outlook for drivers is also positive thanks to the strengthening koruna, the slight decline should continue in the coming weeks,” BH Securities Chief Economist Štěpán Křeček told Práv.
Gasoline could become cheaper by about 50 pennies, diesel by up to 70 pennies per liter
According to Tomčiak, Nafta is also helped by a reduction in the wholesale margins of refineries throughout the European market. At the beginning of the year, this margin for diesel represented 50 dollars per barrel, and now it is already below 40 dollars. He pointed out that the refinery margin is now dramatically higher than it used to be. “In the past, we were used to it being around $10 a barrel,” he explained.
The situation may start to change in February. At the beginning of this month, the ban on the import of fuel from Russia into the European Union will come into effect. The Czechia is exempt from this ban and can import products from Russian oil until December of this year.
“In the past, two-thirds of diesel imported into Europe came from Russia. It can be expected that now European suppliers will pre-stock products from Russia as much as possible, and the supply on the European market should increase,” said Tomčiak. Then it will depend on how they manage to increase imports from other areas such as the Persian Gulf, India or Turkey.
If oil goes up, prices will go up
In the longer term, according to Tomčiak, it remains to be seen whether the oil cartel OPEC will succeed in bringing the price of oil up to the level of around $100 per barrel. This would mean a significant increase in the price of gasoline and diesel already by the middle of this year.
“Market developments are difficult to estimate, there may be a surplus, but Goldman Sachs, for example, estimates that there could be a short-term deficit on the market in the second half of the year and expects a price of $105 per barrel for this part of the year,” said Tomčiak.
According to him, if the price of oil rose to $100 per barrel and the wholesale margins of refineries did not change, this would mean an increase in the final prices of gasoline and diesel by three to four crowns per liter.
In Hungary, after the abolition of the fuel cap, drivers refuel more expensively than in the Czech Republic
Economic
