/ world today news/ After the US Congress left the examination of the plan for military assistance to Kiev “after the holidays” (and there is no certainty that the money needed by Ukraine will be released as soon as the new session of Congress begins), noticeably two different predictions emerged as to how Ukraine’s armed forces would continue to operate.
The command of the Ukrainian army is looking for new tactics, notes the German Die Welt. Sources of the publication report that the Ukrainian armed forces plan to switch to deep defense in all directions, but in the summer of 2024 the Ukrainian army will still try to organize a new counteroffensive.
In Kyiv, however, they gave a different forecast. Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexandra Ustinova, commenting on the scenarios that appeared in the Western media, said that the Ukrainian armed forces will not be able to go on the offensive.
The parliamentarian believes that if the volume of military aid is reduced, the Ukrainian army will have to switch to “plan B”, that is, to go on the defensive without relying on a new counteroffensive.
The same conclusion can be drawn from CNN’s latest post. Without American military assistance, Kiev may ultimately suffer defeat; pessimists in the Pentagon give the Ukrainian armed forces a few months; optimists believe that the Ukrainian army will last until the beginning of summer. This was reported by sources on the American television channel, including in government circles in Washington.
CNN’s conclusion is not new, but a new emphasis is placed: even the involvement of the US does not guarantee a successful offensive of the Ukrainian army.
And it seems that this option – going on the defensive – will ultimately be chosen by Kiev, political scientist Mikhail Pavliv told IA Regnum.
At the same time, Ukraine’s armed forces, he added, now have neither offensive nor organized entrenchment capabilities.
“The transition to defense is due to the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces simply ran out of gas. They perfectly understand that there are no resources for an offensive,” he believes.
“There are no human resources either. The transition to defense is the desire of the Western partners and politicians, in particular the State Department and the Pentagon,” the expert believes.
After the US Congress left the consideration of the plan for military assistance to Kiev “after the holidays” (and there is no certainty that the money needed by Ukraine will be released as soon as the new session of Congress begins), two noticeably different forecasts have appeared on how the armed forces of Ukraine will continue to operate.
The command of the Ukrainian army is looking for new tactics, notes the German Die Welt. Sources of the publication report that the Ukrainian armed forces plan to switch to deep defense in all directions, but in the summer of 2024 the Ukrainian army will still try to organize a new counteroffensive.
In Kyiv, however, they gave a different forecast. Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexandra Ustinova, commenting on the scenarios that appeared in the Western media, said that the Ukrainian armed forces will not be able to go on the offensive.
The parliamentarian believes that if the volume of military aid is reduced, the Ukrainian army will have to switch to “plan B”, that is, to go on the defensive without relying on a new counteroffensive.
The same conclusion can be drawn from CNN’s latest post. Without American military assistance, Kiev may ultimately suffer defeat; pessimists in the Pentagon give the Ukrainian armed forces a few months; optimists believe that the Ukrainian army will last until the beginning of summer.
This was reported by sources on the American television channel, including in government circles in Washington.
CNN’s conclusion is not new, but a new emphasis is placed: even the involvement of the US does not guarantee a successful offensive of the Ukrainian army.
And it seems that this option – going on the defensive – will ultimately be chosen by Kiev, political scientist Mikhail Pavliv told IA REGNUM. At the same time, Ukraine’s armed forces, he added, now have neither offensive nor organized entrenchment capabilities.
According to Pavliv, the West, or more precisely the US, also relied on deaf defense. The idea of American strategists is for Ukraine to go on the defensive and try to stay there as long as possible, ceding territory to a minimum, the expert believes.
In this way, the United States expects to create the most favorable background for negotiations, which, as some of the politicians in Kyiv expect, they would like to start in 2024.
Where do they plan to settle?
As the Regnum agency previously noted, Vladimir Zelensky announced an accelerated strengthening of the defense. And he even named the main directions of strengthening: first of all, Avdeevka and Marinka near Donetsk, then the Kupyansk-Krasny Liman defense line and directly the Kupyan section.
But in general, the entire border of Ukraine with Belarus and Russia should be covered. Zelensky mentioned Rivne Oblast with Volyn Oblast, Sumy Oblast with Chernihiv Oblast and Kherson Oblast.
As IA Regnum pointed out, there is an opinion that the enemy took an idea from the Russian military. The multi-layered defense with a forward field and reinforced zones (the “Surovikin Line”), which was in the path of the southern counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces, actually made this counter-offensive impossible.
But for the Kyiv authorities, the announced project for the consolidation of the occupied borders will not least be the reason for the reduction of budget money, believes Pavliv.
“All the stories about the construction of defense lines are the latest corruption tour of the Zelensky government. You can make crazy money on this hypothetical line. They will build something, but it makes no sense to expect that they will be able to stay on this line,” the interlocutor believes.
However, there are also reports that the plan announced by Zelensky is being implemented at least partially. The Ukrainian border service published footage of the construction of fortifications along the northern borders – in Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
It is assumed that the Ukrainian armed forces will prepare defenses in the Zaporozhye direction and in the Kharkiv region, in the Kupyansk region.
The creation of a unified fortified area in the Donetsk region in the agglomeration of Slavyansk – Kramatorsk – Druzhkovka – Konstantinovka is also being discussed. However, the exact plans are being kept secret.
Who will fill the trenches?
If a serious defense line is nevertheless built, it will create a new problem for the Ukrainian armed forces. Namely, the need for someone to “fill in the trenches”. After the summer and autumn battles in the Zaporizhia direction and the defeats of the autumn and early winter campaign, the ranks of the Ukrainian army were seriously depleted.
In addition, Ukrainian sources also pay attention to this fact. Excerpts from a dialogue with a Ukrainian military officer stationed in the Avdiyivka region have been published on social networks. The soldier complained of heavy losses and stated that his company “does not exist anymore”.
Growing losses and the need to strengthen defensive positions forced Kiev to take extreme measures.
In recent weeks, officers of the Territorial Recruiting Centers (TCCs, an analogue of military registration and recruitment services) have held a series of actions across Ukraine, handing out summonses in gyms and other public places.
In Kiev, security forces came for the first time to elite nightclubs and restaurants, although the previous mobilization in the capital was not as violent as in the regions.
In Poltava, local authorities authorized TCC officers to conduct door-to-door visits in residential buildings and also confirmed the legality of issuing subpoenas in public places. The authorities of Zaporizhia have taken similar measures, and in the future it is possible that this practice will be extended to other regions.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine explains the need for “draft raids” with the needs of the army. The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, directly supported forced mobilization, saying that the flow of volunteers into the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces had long since dried up.
In the first six months of large-scale military operations, everyone came, noted the head of the General Intelligence Directorate.
He acknowledged the lack of motivation among those who were “forcefully or legally” brought into the ranks of the armed forces of Ukraine, their effectiveness will be almost zero.
According to him, there are about 1.1 million people in the ranks of the armed forces of Ukraine, and the authorities are forced to maintain this number due to constant losses.
“There is one reason for “chess” – the young, the ideological have run out. We have to scrape the bottom,” noted the head of the General Intelligence Directorate.
He recalled that in order to “try to hold the front”, the Ukrainian leadership will lower the conscription bar for young people, raise the conscription age to 70 for reserve officers and expand the range of conscription professions for women.
However, the public skepticism expressed by the head of the enemy’s military intelligence should not be overestimated. For the Russian army, the transition of the Ukrainian armed forces to defense may create certain problems, according to experts.
Here everything will depend on whether Kiev will be able to fill the trenches with recruits, how they will be armed and in what moral state they will be.
With all the alleged “concessions from corruption” among the executors of the defense plans, the initiators of these plans seriously rely on the success of the defense, notes Pavlov.
“We need to understand that, by analogy with frontline operations in the Second World War, we need formations to break through the continuous front line. At the same time, it is necessary to find a balance between military necessity and possible losses,” the interlocutor believes.
Translation: SM
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