Home » today » Business » Gas war: Bulgaria will be the most affected by the unreliable Ukrainian transit – 2024-10-03 19:00:33

Gas war: Bulgaria will be the most affected by the unreliable Ukrainian transit – 2024-10-03 19:00:33

/ world today news/ With the decision of the Rada to impose sanctions on the transit of Russian goods and resources through its territory, Ukraine actually opens another front in the gas war.

On the first, it has long been at war with Russia, violating all existing treaties, not paying for the gas delivered to it, or openly stealing from the fuel destined for Europe. The sanctions introduced now open the door for the Kyiv authorities to blackmail Europe as well. In other words, they warn that when they want, they can turn off the faucet of Russian gas supplies to European consumers.

However, in order not to anger their Western sponsors, in parallel with the announcement of the sanctions, contradictory statements rained down. While Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk threatened to stop gas transit, Ukrtransnafta rejected such a possibility.

Last year, gas consumption in Europe reached 541 billion cubic meters, of which 253 billion cubic meters were imported. Gazprom’s deliveries to the EU countries and Turkey exceeded 161.1 billion cubic meters, reaching 29.9% of the total gas imports. Half of them – 86.1 billion cubic meters – targeted for Central and Southern Europe, have passed through the Ukrainian pipeline. Earlier, before the more efficient use of “Nord Stream” began, up to 120 billion cubic meters of gas passed through Ukraine.

Today, 2⁄3 of the gas transportation system (GTS) of Ukraine is loaded. It loses its power mainly for two reasons. First, technical outsourcing and lack of necessary maintenance and renewal. And secondly, a reduction in deliveries for objective reasons, such as the more efficient loading of the “Nord Stream”. Currently, only 50% of the annual deliveries are carried through the GTS without losses.

With the construction of “South Stream” from 2015, it is planned to flow up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas, and after its complete completion in 2018 – up to 63 billion cubic meters. The capacity will also decrease by that much This will reduce the risks of the vagaries of the transit country, as the pipeline with Russian gas will go directly to the territory of an EU country through the Black Sea.

For now, the transit to Europe on the Ukrainian GTS is going according to plan, although in June “Gazprom” fixed some illegal gas draining. According to forecasts of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, by the end of the year, the volume of Russian gas transit through the country will reach 82 billion cubic meters m along the average length of the road 1.12 thousand km The parameters of the budget for the year are calculated at the base price of 1.67 hryvnias per 100 km .53 billion hryvnias ($173.12 million) Russia has long prepaid its transit fees by the end of the year.

Some experts suggest that the Ukrainian sanctions against Russia, which provide for the suspension of the transit of Russian gas, may strengthen the positions for the construction of “South Stream”, Vedomosti commented. The Rada’s decision to sell 49% of the assets of GTS to foreign companies, but in no case to Russian, and for them to carry out the transit. In addition, they will become the owner of the fuel already at the Russian-​Ukrainian border, and not as it is now – at the border of Ukraine with the EU countries. At the moment, Gazprom owns the gas passing through Ukraine to its western border. Thus, European companies will transport the raw material to their countries themselves, paying transit fees to Kiev, and Ukraine will not buy the gas directly from Russia, but from a European company At the moment, the gas comes from the German RWE and through a reverse flow, it is expected that in September such an opportunity will be discovered, but this will be a re-export of the Russian gas, which is illegal.

In the underground storages of Ukraine, 14 billion cubic meters of gas are now stored, but this volume is not only insufficient for a normal winter period, but is only half of what is needed. In order to make savings in Kiev and other major cities of the country, hot water has been stopped for two months and will be turned on at the beginning of the heating season, which this year will start later than usual, the authorities warned. In addition, street lighting has been turned off in many districts of the Ukrainian capital. A power cut is also not out of the question as a coal crisis looms, which some government sources say could run out within a month. The reason is that most of the large mines in Donbas are closed due to the fierce military actions and broken railway lines.

The authorities talked a lot and hoped for reverse gas supplies from Europe, but this option also turned out to be a chimera. The already paltry volumes that were released at the beginning of the summer have now been reduced by 2 times. At the same time, Kiev continues to refuse to pay its debts to “Gazprom”, which exceed 5.3 billion dollars. Therefore, the option tested by the Ukrainians – to steal from the European pipe – is becoming more and more likely. The most affected by this of all in Europe will turn out to be Bulgaria, as it is among the EU countries that are almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, and the only route for its supply is the outdated Ukrainian pipeline. The picture would be much different if there was South Stream”. The Baltic States are also so dependent on Russian gas, but luckily for them they are not dependent on Ukrainian transit. The Bulgarian caretaker presidential government, apparently guided not by the national interest, but by its own servitude, decided to freeze the “South Stream” even deeper. It seems – until the complete freezing of the state.

in “Russia Today”

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