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Gas price continues record race and is about 160 euros

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The Dutch reference price for natural gas continues to rise. “This price is the equivalent of an oil price of $200.”

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For the ninth day in a row, the natural gas price on the international markets is rising. The Dutch reference future for delivery within one month will increase by 25 percent to 145 euros. The TTF future briefly touched 161.5 euros.

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Europe is gradually entering the winter with historically low gas supplies. This leads to great nervousness in the markets. “The rally just keeps going. We expect a downturn anyway, but we also know that gas and coal prices will remain relatively high until the end of 2022,” says Capital Economics.

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The specialists at Société Générale speak of a ‘perfect storm’. ‘Temperatures in Europe are still relatively mild during the first days of autumn. But a cold winter could cause very serious problems.’

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According to Société Générale, it is becoming crucial that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline approved faster than usual, via a so-called fast-track procedure. The Nord Stream 2 is a 1,224-kilometer pipeline under the Baltic Sea, intended to transport gas directly from the Russian Arctic to Germany.

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If the current gas price continues, Norwegian exports will increase by an incredible 30 percent.

George Saravelos

Deutsche Bank

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“We fear that European energy prices may rise in the coming months,” said Michael Haigh, Société Générale’s energy specialist. He is talking about the price of gas, coal and electricity. Electricity prices are on the rise, due to rising gas and coal prices.

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Economic impact

According to Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos, the current price is the equivalent of an oil price of $200. ‘Don’t underestimate the impact of that. The eurozone is particularly vulnerable. If this continues, Europe will lose its trade surplus.’

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The clear winners of the gas boom are Norway, Russia and Qatar. “If the current gas price continues, Norwegian exports will increase by an incredible 30 percent,” says Saravelos. ‘We are positive about the Norwegian krone’.

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Heating oil 86 percent more expensive than last year

The fuel oil price will rise again on Thursday: 2.3 euro cents per liter will be added to the maximum price for orders from 2,000 liters, the FPS Economy reports. Right now there is a lot of demand for oil, says the Belgian federation of fuel traders (Brafco).

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Just like diesel and petrol, heating oil is quickly becoming more expensive. At 0.7728 euros per liter, the official price is close to the peak of October 2018. Then the price rose to 0.7977 euros per liter. Exactly a year ago, a liter cost 0.4163 euros. The price has therefore risen by almost 86 percent in one year. In the corona crisis last year, the fuel oil price had completely collapsed.

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Fuel traders are currently noticing a greater demand for heating oil, says Johan Mattart of Brafco. ‘That’s partly because of the prices: people anticipate future price increases,’ he says. In addition, the heating season has also started, traditionally the period in which people place orders.

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