The plug of the new one year is carried in encouraging signs from energetic market. The price of the European gas benchmark TTF continues in free fall, reaching as high as 55 EUR/MWhi.e. buried under the domestic price ceiling na rovni piblin 125 EUR/MWh. Go in December with an idiot gas prodval for 150 EUR/MWhbut since then the effect of the abnormal heat of winter has worked, resulting in gas consumption nap Europe.
To illustrate how important the impact of heat is while in esk last week she was according to Which Weather amps gas consumption by 35.2% (at temperatures of 5.2 degrees Celsius). And first, the demand for gas from the title of warm, she appeared in the last weeks in a paradoxical situation, when the domestic songbooks began to fill up again, quite atypically for this year. In the first week of January, the gas tanks were 87% full, which is significantly higher than the long-term average for this period (70%).
Bimbomeme, b Europe hrla do not ji jnov vlna teplho while, this time, however, led not only to a drop in spot prices, but also in long-term contracts on the wholesale market. Forward’s nod TTF now vid the price of gas for pt winter 2023/2024 even below 70 EUR/MWh.
However, from our point of view, current forward prices and prices are low, for at least one important reason. At these price levels, the European benchmark is TTF, not Asian JKM. In other words, the first Asian market is an attractive destination for sales at current prices LNG tanker, what would it be for Europe problem in terms of spring/summer full collection. In addition, in our view, the forward price does not have the full impact of the fully open nsk economy, respectively substantial growth in demand, which is likely to contribute to the further suppression of global LNG market.
So they are current gas prices v Europe hitable? We are not sure about it yet, nothing if we should during according to expect positive, it is possible, e Europe the end of winter with solidly filled collections and prices could be beaten. But if it will Europe need to fill the capacity of the cell in the meeting room, then he will have to be absent ruskch dodvek mocks LNG tankers to their runs, for which there will also be a need for an exit gas prices to the old continent.
