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Long-term loans to households, both mortgages and consumer loans, will continue to rise in the coming months, financiers say. PHOTO: “24 HOURS”
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Lending to households and attracting deposits from them will continue to grow, say financiers
Due to the administrative increase in the prices of electricity, heating and natural gas from July 1, as well as due to the rising oil prices, financial experts in Bulgaria expect inflation to continue rising in the third quarter. This is shown by the data from the quarterly bulletin “Financial sector: assessments and expectations” of the Ministry of Finance, which is prepared on a survey basis among a wide range of financiers.
Inflation forecasts from the previous bulletin
they have already
come true
because from 0.2% in the first quarter of 2021, annual inflation in the second rose to 2.2%.
Investment intermediaries are most adamant in their forecast that inflation will continue to accelerate, but representatives of commercial banks and management companies believe the same. The forecast does not contain exact figures, but more than half of the respondents expect a sharp increase, and another 38% – some increase in inflation, with estimates at their highest point for the last 3 years. Inflation data for August and September have not yet been released since the third quarter, but the July annual rise reached 3% for the first time in three years.
With regard to interest rates on loans, they are expected to remain as they were in the second quarter, as
will provoke
increase
of the number of
relaxed
loans
According to the banks participating in the survey, the growth in the volume of loans will accelerate by the end of the third quarter, with a larger increase expected in the overdraft for companies in line with expectations for economic recovery by the end of the year and higher economic activity. . Banks also expect increased demand for long-term loans from households.
Even the current dynamics are such that by the end of June loans to households have accelerated significantly, with
the annual
increase
was 10.4%
at 7.1% at the end of the first quarter. We are talking about both consumer and mortgage loans for the purchase of housing. To a large extent, this will be affected by the increasing competition that leasing companies and fast loan companies are doing to banks.
In the third quarter, attracted deposits from companies and households will continue to grow, with those from households growing more than corporate deposits, according to the survey results.
Some optimism in the survey was demonstrated regarding intercompany indebtedness. Most financiers believe that it will remain unchanged until the end of the third quarter, but compared to previous polls, the share of those who believe that it will decrease is increasing.
This is directly related to the expectations for increased activity in the business as a whole, and hence the assessment that
employment
will continue
to increase,
and unemployment –
to decrease
The only ones who are not optimistic in this regard are the representatives of the commercial banks, who predominantly believe that employment will either decrease or remain at its current levels.
Management companies and pension funds are very optimistic that they will attract more funds, especially from households and non-financial corporations.
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