/ world today news/ The long-time journalist Ivan Garelov, in an interview with Transmedia TV and Yavor Dachkov, commented on what the domestic political situation will be like in the country after the early parliamentary elections.
Yavor Dachkov: First of all, I want to make an analogy. It is 20 years since the events of January 10, 1997. Then a new president took office, early elections were held, mandates were returned. Can an analogy be drawn with the current situation?
– Although some of the external marks are similar, I still think that the most important thing is in its essence. And in essence, there is something in common. And that is that we have a government that does not want to leave. Protaka, looking for options, etc. Of course, there is one big difference that the election will hopefully be announced. Then there was an attempt not to have elections at all, but to have a second government. But anyway the inner torment and agony was the same.
The agony of surrendering power?
– Yes, I remember Nikolay Dobrev called me one day in Positano, why do we “poetize” the protests like that. He said “you are poeticizing” the protests, because we showed them widely every “Panorama”. I told him: We show them, but you quickly hand over power. And he said: “But I have a government”. I answered him: I know what your government is.
But this is the agony. Then the BSP did not want to hand over power. I think the same will happen now. I hope without excesses and street protests. But … I think there is an energy building up in people. I personally expect, if not now, then in some near future, there may be some kind of social street unrest.
Where will they be directed or does it depend on the political situation?
– Much depends after these early elections, which I hope will not be sought. Because if early elections are not scheduled, it will already be a coup. Because all previous attempts to push through, with the participation of the current president, exist thanks to a creeping coup d’état. Since you don’t even comply with the constitution. It is very important what will be the ratio of political forces in the new parliament. I of course have my prediction.
What is she like?
– I am saying something that I wrote back in the fall. It is that a large coalition will be reached. As a large coalition, I do not understand many parties, as was the case before, but I understand the two big ones – a general government between GERB and BSP. At the time, that sounded very scary. Even now, no one likes to talk about this, because before elections, each party must mobilize its people, and not win over internal opponents of a possible future agreement. I see that the more prominent figures have already started commenting on the subject, of course denying it. On behalf of GERB, Georgi Markov said that this is out of the question. On the left side, Sasho Simov said that this is suicide for both parties. Boryana Dimitrova also said that she does not believe at all.
Are the speakers going down?
– Speakers are lowered to tighten the rigid electorate. But I think it will get there. Rather, taking into account lasting trends, especially external ones. We see that people’s sentiments have changed as far as Bulgaria’s foreign policy orientation is concerned. That’s a fact. We are no longer all 90% behind the European idea. We see that there is hesitation. Some kind of skepticism. We see in black and white the role of the US as hegemon of the free world
And the best were they?
– Yes. It was enough that when the Americans do something, it is only for good. But there is already enough skepticism built up. There is a certain reorientation regarding the politics of Russia. Many people, especially when it comes to its role in Ukraine, even in Syria, are not as critical as some extreme Russophobes. This means that we have not been able to find that balance, however. They sought the balance in the funniest way. The ministers spoke one thing, the prime minister “balanced” his ministers with another. They speak pro-American, he is a little bit pro-Russian. This is collapsing everything. I think that it is necessary to arrive at a general government of the two parties. One is a little pro-Russian oriented. That is, you have two countries that can negotiate with the two major powers not to compete, but to put their interests within some framework. I think that the two parties will come to the impossibility of forming any kind of coalition with anyone else. And what is going on? They are self-excluded. If you do with one – bad. If you do with the other – again bad.
And type Mareshki or Barekov?
– I don’t think that can happen. Well, then I already think that it can lead to social unrest. I.e. it is agony. This is a continuation of the previous way of life, in which it is not important what happens in the country, it is important that you will have some balance with which you can vote – arithmetic. Arithmetic is not politics.
At the end of the day, I don’t see any ideological difference between the membership of GERB and BSP. Most of them in GERB are former members of BSP.
GERD is the more cationic BSP.
– There are conditions, of course. In order for this result to be reached and this agreement to be reached, several conditions must be met. All this would be much easier if Boyko Borisov accepted to become an honorary chairman. I proposed this before the elections, after that I think Valery Simeonov started repeating it. If he steps down as an honorary chairman in the vein of Ahmet Dogan. There are reasonable people in the party. The cliché that without Boyko the party will fall apart is banal. In politics, nothing is repeated literally. We see that there are people cheated. They are no longer shy about distinguishing themselves from Boyko. This whole crisis, in which he had lost his temper and made mistake after mistake, they publicly gave some shade.
These are the people around Tomislav Donchev, Rumiana Bachvarova?
– Yes, that’s what I mean. At the same time, we see that Parvanov resigned from ABV. I assume that if the ABV is retained, it will be accepted in the PES. It will probably lead to some kind of left unification. Now Kornelia Ninova has to strengthen her party a little, which should be done in parallel with the preparations for elections. In DPS, the change has been made. And the most important thing is that there should be no intrigue, it should be gentlemanly. Probably GERB has to accept one concession in order to have a coalition. My guess is that it will be the abolition of the flat tax. For the BSP to have a face in front of its supporters, to form a coalition with them. A Dimitar Popov-type coalition would be much easier. It was a grand coalition. It was not exactly an expert government, because the politicians were inside (Ivan Kostov, Alexander Tomov, Dimitar Luzhev). They were deputy prime ministers. You see they did a lot of useful work back then. And there were no contradictions, no lies.
About GERD just to finish. Isn’t it a risk that Borisov leaves Tsvetanov’s party like this? I see that there is an obvious rift between Tsvetanov and the politicians we talked about.
– My reasoning was up to here. From here we enter the Big Brother scenario. Who to whom. Who is going to kick whom – let them get better.
1997 marked the beginning of the rise of the SDS, for 20 years this party or this idea has hardly existed. In recent days, another attempt has been made to survive this type of representation of the electorate. I mean the party of Hristo Ivanov – “Yes, Bulgaria”. Do you see a future in it? Many young people gathered in it. There is quite a lot of enthusiasm in some media, in social networks.
– I like their ideas, but they are very infantile. And in this case, I see that these are intelligent people. They can make an elitist party – a party of yellow paving stones. But whether she can win over voters, or whether she will once again fall in love with herself, is the big danger they face. Their nature is such that they are not public enough. They are intelligent to listen to them, to talk to them. Some of them are very pleasant. But they are not politicians.
I don’t know what role Radan Kanev will play in the back with his party. Why should there be two separate parties? At some point, whether they will get together or not, I don’t know. I’m keeping a close eye, but so far I’m skeptical of their capabilities. On an idea, on a book, yes.
Will President Radev succeed in creating a center of power or will he just be a public image, as Plevneliev was?
– I think that this center has already been created. At least its structure is more or less formed. It was a difficult battle between him and some of the “sages” in the BSP, who are used to saying everything. In his close team, he managed to get people who in no way can be said to be apparatchiks.
I.e. are they emancipated from the party?
– They are emancipated to no small extent. This, I am already convinced, will also be evident in the new cabinet. It is likely that some of these people will be ministerial ministers. It is possible that this service cabinet will have a longer life.
If the coalition negotiations are delayed?
– They will probably be delayed. It is possible that some of these ministers will remain in a future cabinet. So he’s currently taking the steps, I think he’s come to some decisions. I 99% who will be the caretaker prime minister.
Who are you referring to?
– I think it will be Prof. Ognyan Gerdzhikov. I am 99% convinced that it will be him. Of course, not only by profile, but personally. Of course, the other mentioned candidates had a similar profile. For example, Academician Vodenicharov. Bogomil Bonev is a more revolutionary, perhaps controversial figure.
He himself may have denied this, while Professor Gerdzhikov said that he said neither “yes” nor “no”
– He can’t say anything before the president says it. But I think it will become clear in two or three days.
Will this be the calling card of the new president through this cabinet?
– From this it will be clear that he has really emancipated himself and that this is not a hidden cabinet of the BSP. Of course, in some form they can consult with each other, but he will say no to any attempt to influence him. Of course in any partnership there are trade-offs. They are trade-offs between people in a party, bro between an independent person.
I expect that this year we will be convinced that we have a worthy president and Bulgaria will perhaps go on a new path. Now this new center of power, is it a political formation or not? Here I take an example from Charles de Gaulle. During de Gaulle’s time the coalitionists were just sympathizers, weren’t they? But after him they became categorical, which is now politics.
Thank you very much for this conversation.
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