“There are such people” and GERB-UDF have absolutely equal positions for the early elections on July 11, according to a Gallup International Balkan poll commissioned by BNR.
This is one of the intrigues – for the first place in the vote, which is currently impossible to predict, commented sociologists.
Gallup notes that the survey site (June 3-11) is after the Magnitsky sanctions, but only partially captures Slavi Trifonov refused to run for parliament.
Another intrigue is whether the protest parties will have a majority against GERB, BSP and MRF. Not at the moment, but they are approaching this possibility, Gallup points out.
The third intrigue is what are the chances of “Democratic Bulgaria” for more prominent places – there is a strengthening of the result in recent months.
The fourth intrigue is about the barrier. The Bulgarian Patriots coalition has the best chances there.
Gallup notes that at the beginning of the election campaign, the outcome began to look increasingly unpredictable.
The conclusions are from the snapshot of the electoral attitudes, as the survey was conducted in the period June 3-11 among 1,012 adult Bulgarians, through a face-to-face interview with tablets. The absolute maximum error is ± 3.1% for 50% shares.
If the election were today, those who are expected to vote with certainty would vote like this:
- “There is such a people” would rely on 21.2%,
- GERB-UDF – by 21%,
- BSP – 15.9%,
- “Democratic Bulgaria” – 12.1%,
- DPS – 11.9%,
- “Stand up! Mutri, get out!” – 5,8%,
- “Bulgarian Patriots” – 3.5%,
- “Revival” – by 2.7%,
- Vasil Bozhkov’s party “Bulgarian Summer” – 2.4%.
In total, 3.5% are for other parties. Among them are the formation around Jean Videnov, the formation of Tsvetan Tsvetanov, the union around Petar Moskov, “Attack” and others.
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Photo: Gallup
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Potential official activity will be calculated only when the official voter lists are published. The declarative attitudes at the moment look like this:
If the election were held today, 58.2% of all respondents said they would certainly vote in the July 11 election. 16.4% say they are likely to vote; 7.3% – that they will probably not vote; 14.7% – that they will certainly not vote. There are also a small proportion who fail to respond.
A minimum share would vote with “I do not support anyone.”
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