/ world today news/ If the elections were held today, there would be 5+1 formations in the parliament. The equalization of the forces of the BSP and GERB is getting stronger. The positive trend in confidence in Radev, Karakachanov, Ninova and Mareshki continues.
The momentum from the presidential elections is gradually moving into mobilization for the parliamentary elections. That’s according to data from an independent express telephone poll by Gallup International conducted Jan. 27 and 29 among 816 people across the country – commissioned, funded and conducted by Gallup International.
The data is not a forecast of the election result, but only a reflection of the declarative attitudes. The maximum error in the 50% divisions is ± 3.5%.
From today’s point of view, 6 formations are above 4%. The distance between the BSP (28.7% among those who can certainly be expected to vote) and GERB (27.6%) is within a few tens of thousands of votes. Therefore, one can speak of a practical equality of forces. It is difficult to determine who would finish first in the polls.
From today’s point of view, the National Assembly will also include the United Patriots (11.9% among those who can certainly be expected to vote), DPS (8.2%), Veselin Mareshki’s party (VOLIA) with 7.7 %, and with serious prospects of being in the National Assembly is the Reform Bloc (4.3%) and this depends a lot on the campaign that the bloc will make. Thus, the configuration in the next parliament can be defined as 5+1.
Among the other formations, there are “Yes, Bulgaria” (2%), ABV (1.9%) and the new formation around DSB (1.6%). With these formations, the potential will have to be observed yet – depending on how they manage to assert themselves and advertise themselves or what coalitions they will make.
Traditionally, formations such as the Bulgarian Democratic Center (successor of the LEADER party) and DOST can also expect close to 1.5% support. Support for such formations, however, is more difficult to register in demoscopic surveys and therefore can be reported mostly conditionally.
Around and below 1%, but with a real presence, there remain formations such as “Movement 21”, “Voice of the People”, “The Greens” and others.
79% in the survey say they will vote – this equates to about 4.3 million people. According to the electoral rolls, this means about 63%. The percentages quoted above are on a voter basis only. Of course, these are declarative attitudes at the moment and cannot be a prediction of what voters will do in the elections themselves. 1.9% say they would vote “I do not support anyone”. However, this share is not calculated in the distribution of percentages.
The rise of those who won the most in the presidential elections continues: Rumen Radev, Krasimir Karakachanov, Kornelia Ninova and Veselin Mareshki. Radev is the undisputed leader in personal ratings with confidence (41.7%), and in a pack behind him are Karakachanov (26.1%), Ninova (24.9%) and Borisov (24.6%). The presence of Veselin Mareshki (18.4% confidence) is also noticeable. Karakachanov practically doubled his trust compared to the summer of 2016. The growth at Ninova is also serious. The loss in the presidential election clearly leads to a negative trend for Boyko Borisov, and while he used to hover around a third of confidence levels, now he is at around a quarter.
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