/ world today news/ If the elections were held in mid-April, a contested battle between the two main formations in the country would once again take place. However, among the main players this time would be “Revival”. DPS, BSP and DB would be forced to rely on further strengthening of their firm support instead of electoral expansion, and formations like “There is such a people” and VMRO would get a momentary “hardening” of the electorates, probably because of the popular topic with North Macedonia.
Maya Manolova’s formation also maintains a certain presence. The same seven formations as now would enter the parliament. On the basis of all potential voters, the chances of victory of “We continue the change” seem a little better, but with a trend of continued “shrinking of the scissors” with GERB-SDS. However, based on actual voting expectations, GERB-SDS already has better prospects than PP. The smaller coalition partners seem to have broken the momentum of post-election vacillation and in the past three months have rather been strengthening their support levels to varying degrees.
The snapshot of electoral attitudes is from the latest wave of the regular independent program of monthly surveys known as the Gallup International Balkan Political and Economic Index.
Over the months, Continuing the Change has suffered the standard erosion of support over the years in office, exacerbated by unfavorable international circumstances, and is already hovering at 16% of all eligible voters (16.1% this month), after some time ago it was more like 20% of all those entitled to vote. With 14.4% of all voters, GERB-SDS maintains solid levels. However, when looking at the data among those who can be firmly expected to vote for a party or coalition, GERB-SDS has 25.9% and PP – 23.8%. The situation resembles the one before the elections last fall, when GERB had the firmer support and PP relied on the mobilization of its less loyal, but potentially wider, electorate. Now, however, the tendency is more towards destabilizing this electorate, and it remains to be seen whether the creation of the PP party will serve as a mobilizing factor. Therefore, in addition to the traditionally published picture of attitudes among all those entitled to vote, it is important to analyze the picture of attitudes among those who have declared that they will definitely vote.
The DPS maintains its traditional levels – 7.2% of those entitled to vote and 10.6% among potential voters. The traditional high degree of loyalty, albeit among a reduced electoral body, means that the BSP is at a symbolic distance after the DPS among the “hard” supporters – 10.3%. With 5% on the basis of all those entitled to vote in our country, however, the BSP remains on this indicator after ITN – who show symptoms of stopping the erosion of support and have 6.5% of all. Support for ITN, on the other hand, is not firm, and this leaves them further behind in the ranking among those who are actually expected to vote – at 7%. There, ITN has also been overtaken by “Vazrazhdane” (7.9% support among “hardliners”). “Vazrazhdane” is also the only formation that continues to grow. If among all those with the right to vote, Kostadin Kostadinov’s party two months ago had 2.5%, now it already enjoys the support of 4.4%, and probably also has a certain “hidden” vote.
The last formation in the parliament, if the elections were held today, would be “Democratic Bulgaria”. The coalition has 3.5% potential electoral support among all eligible voters, but among those who would actually vote, support is 4.5%, i.e. over the barrier. The barrier is calculated precisely on the basis of voters, not on the basis of all those entitled to vote. It is known that DB succeeds in mobilizing support usually literally in the last days and hours of the votes. So future views are probably better than the current picture.
VMRO and “Stand Up” remain below the barrier, which have about 1% support from all, but are of varying degrees of “hardness”: VMRO has this month 2.1% among “hard” voters, and Maya Manolova’s formation – 1.2%. Probably, the momentary “hardness” at VMRO comes from their crowning issue with Macedonia.
34.1% of Bulgarians of legal age state that they would not vote. A few percent would prefer various smaller formations (but with low levels of confidence in the security of the vote), or the option “I do not support anyone”. However, there are few who would actually go out to vote and tick “I support no one”
The research is independent. The wave of interviewing was among 809 adult Bulgarians, between March 31 and April 8 – through a direct personal interview with tablets among a two-stage random sample, representative of the adult population of the country. Possible deviation: ±3.5% at 50% shares. 1% of the entire sample is approximately equal to 54 thousand adult Bulgarians.
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