GERB-SDS maintains a significant lead as the first political force with 25.7% of the votes. 3.1% of all voters are expected to vote “I do not support anyone”, a total of nine political formations collect more than 1% approval – this is part of the data after an independent poll by “Gallup International” about two weeks before the election.
The survey was conducted through a face-to-face interview with tablets between September 28 and October 6 and covered 806 adult Bulgarians (a representative sample).
The polling agency specifies that the survey is not a prediction of an election result, but a snapshot combined with serious conditionality due to the respondents’ degrees of openness. As well as due to the expected weighting of the “technology” vote in a fluctuating overall turnout.
30.5% of the respondents are sure that they will vote for the National Assembly in the upcoming elections, taking into account the ambiguity in the electoral lists, the declarative nature of attitudes, etc. The conditional expectation is about 2 million votes. 3.1% of all voters are expected to vote “I do not support anyone”.
If the elections were held at the beginning of October and the respondents’ declarations were fulfilled, the results would probably be as follows: GERB-SDS maintains a significant lead as the first political force with 25.7% of the votes.
PP-DB stands out more clearly than “Vazrazhdane” – respectively 16.6% versus 15.4%. At this stage, it is difficult to determine who would finish in second and third place, and surprising developments are not excluded.
According to “Gallup”, it is more difficult to determine with demoscopic methods the situation in the field of the traditional DPS electorate.
The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ALF) remained at the level of 8.3%. However, an upward trend can be seen for DPS-New Beginning, which entered the campaign with lower values, but would have already received support of 6.9% by now.
BSP-United Left would have 7.1%, and ITN with 6.3%. All these formations are currently in a kind of “package”, but the development of the campaign can change a lot of things, as far as, for example, the prominence of DPS-New Beginning is already visible.
With good opportunities are MECH with 3.7%, and Velichie, which at the beginning of October are at 3.2%. “Blue Bulgaria” is at the level of 1.1%. The remaining shares are distributed between formations with declared support at this stage below a percentage.
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