Before the final days of the campaign: 7 formations are likely to have deputies in the National Assembly, one is on the verge and another has its chances to enter the 51st parliament. The data is based on a Gallup International Balkan survey for the Bulgarian National Radio.
The survey covered 1,007 people in a representative sample of the country’s adult population and was conducted through a face-to-face interview with tablets between October 10 and 21. The survey is not a forecast of an election result, but a snapshot of attitudes registered a few days before the vote.
If what was stated the week before the vote was repeated on Sunday, the results would look like this:
GERB-SDS will take 26.1% of the votes.
PP-DB and “Vazrazhdane” – 16.2% and 14.9% respectively – are in a pack and it is not clear who would finish in second and third place, but at this point PP-DB has visibly better prospects.
It is difficult to assess the situation in the field of the traditional DPS electorate, the sociologists from “Gallup” comment. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms is at the level of 7.9%, but the upward trend of “DPS-New Beginning” leads to a practical leveling of support – 7.6%.
“However, the last days of the campaign may change this arrangement and bring “DPS-New Beginning” ahead of APS, if their upward trend continues and due to the higher organizational resource for mobilization demonstrated by them,” the sociologists say. The vote from abroad, which is only indirectly taken into account in such surveys, can also lead to fluctuations in the result.
“BSP-United Left” would have 7.1% support. The support for ITN is also stable – 6.2%.
Gallup adds that these several formations are in a kind of “package”, and there is a certain chance that one or even two more formations will join it.
One week before the vote on the very edge of the 4 percent barrier, with good opportunities to overcome it, are MECH with 4.1% and “Greatness” with 3.8%.
“It is expected that by the election day on Sunday some changes in the disposition of some of the political forces will occur, due to various factors such as the traditional formation of a final decision of a part of the voters of the final right, influence of various organizational and client networks for mobilization in the electoral day, etc.,” sociologists comment.
From their data, it is clear that the expected turnout for voting for the National Assembly is 31.1%, taking into account the conventions of the electoral lists, as well as the sincerity of the answers. The hypothetical expectation is about 2 million votes, with 3.4% of the actual votes – from today’s perspective – likely to be: “I support nobody”.
#Gallup #edge #chances
