SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA, 3 Feb. (EUROPA PRESS) –
Researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela (USC), the Xunta and the Galician Institute of Statistics (IGE) have established epidemiological alert levels after analyzing the 250,000 cases of COVID-19 diagnosed between February and June 2020 in Spain, during the known as the ‘first wave’ of the pandemic.
As detailed by the university, the study, which has been published in the journal Archives of Bronconeumology of the Spanish Society of Pneumology, has allowed to conclude that the confinement decreed on March 14, 2020 “could have arrived late in some provinces and in others it could have been shortened”.
Specifically, the researchers have indicated that they established alert levels according to the accumulated weekly incidence per 100,000 inhabitants with “a very good capacity to discriminate the evolution of cases by province.” By this classification the greater or lesser spread of the disease can be predicted according to the global trend of the accumulated incidence and the speed at which it increases or decreases in the period studied.
The research carried out grouped the provinces in relation to their evolution in the analyzed period, which was bad in 10 cases, intermediate in 17, and good in the remaining 25. To do this, they raised epidemiological alert levels with incidence rates within seven days They classified as intermediate-risk provinces those with 134 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and noted a high risk in those that reached 167.
The authors of the published study have pointed out that these rates are more conservative than those currently in use and that the results cannot be applied to the situation of the pandemic at this time.
Three Galician provinces, among those that evolved the best
The report has concluded that the provinces that presented the best evolution were the Galician, with the exception of Ourense, Zamora, Badajoz, Tarragona and those corresponding to Asturias, Navarra, Andalusia, Murcia and the Valencian Community. In contrast, the areas that presented the worst variation formed an arc from Salamanca to Álava, including Madrid, Cuenca, Albacete and Ciudad Real.
In addition, scientists have highlighted that this report was the first to use this procedure to predict the behavior of the pandemic according to the incidence of the disease. “The proposed methodology could be useful for other countries, although it would previously be necessary to carry out similar studies to verify its usefulness and if the degree of discrimination is maintained,” they have warned.
The authors of the published article were the professors of the USC Alberto Ruano Raviña and Mónica Pérez Ríos and the members of the General Directorate of Public Health of the Xunta and the IGE María Isolina Santiago Pérez and María Esther López Vizcaíno, respectively.
