G20, the final document watered down by differences: small steps on issues and deadlines compared to Paris. Leaders chase the changes they should prevent

Little moves with respect to the objectives of the Agreement Paris of the 2015, although the end of state funding is announced at coal-fired power plants by the end of 2021. And the premier at the G20 of contradictions Mario Draghi brings out of the hat a commitment that saves Italy: the government, in fact, triples the fondo green on climate, reaching 1.4 billion a year for the next 5 years. For the rest, an official document emerged from the Rome summit that disappointed many. Draghi considers the G20 “a successful summit”. But on the front of the fight against climate change, the secretary general of the United Nations, António Guterres, he commented: “Unfulfilled hopes, but not buried”.

The truth is that the countries of the G20 I am already late and the pace, for many, will remain slow. Italian announcement aside, it remains to 100 billion dollars a year until 2025 (nothing more) the fund to support developing countries in policies to combat the climate changes. The differences over the times to reach the are unchanged carbon neutrality, which does not even mean zero emissions, but only a zero balance between emissions and absorption. At the G20 in Rome, the agreement hoped for on the 2050, but in the final document we rely on a laconic “within or around in the middle of the century “. Draghi explains: “The commitment is a little more towards 2050”. In this regard, the words of the Russian Foreign Minister are illuminating Serghiei Lavrov: “2050 is not a magic number, if this is the ambition of the EU, other countries have other ambitions“. And also on the commitment to limit global warming below the threshold of 1,5°, after a second day of the summit marked by rumors, confirmation arrives in the 20-page document e 61 points (many dedicated to climate): “We remain committed to the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the global average temperature rise well below 2 ° C and to continue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ° C below. above pre-industrial levels “.

THE FINAL DOCUMENT – The principle is that of common responsibilities but differentiated and their respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances. Translated: everyone does what they can. There is a step forward compared to Paris, as he recalled Angela Merkel, but it risks remaining on paper: “We recognize that the impacts of climate change at 1.5 ° C are much lower than at 2 ° C. Keeping the 1.5 ° C target within reach will require meaningful and effective actions and commitments from all countries ”. It means “the development of clear national pathways that align long-term ambition with short and medium-term goals”. Only these too, to use the Russian minister’s words, are not ‘magic numbers’. And it will be difficult to stay below the 1.5 ° threshold (but also 2 °), without more ambitious commitments and without remaining consistent with the actions. Because even if we recall the need to help emerging and low-income countries in particular to cope with the costs of transition, the objective of jointly mobilizing 100 billion dollars annually by 2020 (not yet implemented) and annually until 2025 to address the needs of developing countries.

According to the estimates ofOECD the target “should be achieved by 2023”. Italy was missing a billion euros compared to 4 billion of dollars promised in Paris for the period 2015-2020, without considering the beyond 3 billion euros year, starting next year, to ensure its fair share’ of collective commitment. In this direction, a small step has been taken. But, returning to the objectives of the twenty countries, there is no common understanding on the date for carbon neutrality. Russia, in particular, puts its foot down and makes it almost a diplomatic case. The country “will try to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060”Lavrov added, underlining that the 2050 target has been agreed within the framework G7. For the Moscow minister “it was not elegant” to present him to the G20, he was not “respectful of the other G20 countries”. Anachronistic words compared to the data, even the latest released at COP26: the report of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reveals that extreme weather events are already the new normal today.

DIFFICULT WITNESS PASSAGE – In short, in the end there was no agreement between the twenty powers that together are responsible for80% emissions and now, with these premises, the annual UN climate conference, the Cop26 of Glasgow. Where to agree will have to be almost two hundred countries. Draghi said at the beginning of the day: “We have different opinions on how quickly we need to start acting. Emerging economies resent rich countries for what they have polluted in the past and are asking for financial aid to support this transition. We must listen to these concerns and act accordingly, but we cannot sacrifice our collective ambition ”. At the end of the day, however, a surge of hope: “With this summit we have ensured that our dreams are still alive, but now we must make sure we turn them into facts. I want to thank the activists who keep us on the right track. Many say they are tired of blah blah, I believe this summit was full of substance ”.

Also at Cop 26, in the meantime already playing, Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the UN Climate Convention (Unfccc) was optimistic: “The success of COP26 is absolutely possible because we have an action plan, the Agreement of Paris“. And he added: “For those nations who have presented new and updated Ndc (national contributions for decarbonisation), emissions are expected to decrease from 2030“. Except that already in the report of the 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Ipcc) had warned that the world would have until 2030 to prevent the planet from reaching the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The August 2021 report is even tougher: “Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to around 1.5 ° C or even 2 ° C will be a goal out of the from every course “. Degrowth starting from 2030 is not exactly what is meant by “immediate reductions“. According to these predictions, as the Secretary of State of the Biden administration pointed out, Antony Blink, “The commitments for 2050 do not matter, we will not get there if we do not take measures by the end of this decade”.

REACTIONS – The reactions of activists and environmental organizations are much less positive. “From the G20 in Rome we expected more responses and concrete actions on the front of the fight against the climate crisis” he explains Stefano Ciafani, national president of Legambiente, according to which “this is an agreement that formalizes what has already been acquired without providing for concrete commitments on climate finance”. Greenpeace is calling for a faster and more ambitious action plan. According to Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International, “if the G20 was a dress rehearsal for COP26, world leaders have not proved up to par”, while in Glasgow “Countries like Australia and Saudi Arabia must be isolated” . For the national co-spokesperson for Green Europe, Angelo Bonelli, “The outcome of the G20 for the future of the planet was a tragic disaster”. “With the brake placed by China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia, that of Renzi’s Renaissance – he comments – and the shyness of the USA and Europe it will not be possible to stop the warming within the threshold of 1.5 °, and this will make it is impossible to achieve net zero emissions at least by 2050 ”. The WWF speaks of limited progress, for example, to “reverse the loss of biodiversity by 2030”. “We expected much more from the G20 countries, which are responsible for 78% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Now they have to increase their national goals and plans (NDCs) for 2030 – he comments Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, responsible for Climate and Energy of the WWF International and president of COP20 – so that the current gap of ambition to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 ° C is closed, and that structural policies are put in place ”.

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