Future Trends in the US Makeup Market: Strong Growth, Price Constraints, and Declining Interest

After a rebound in 2022, marked by a 9% increase in retail sales, the makeup market continues to show strong growth; however, this is largely explained by inflation. By the end of 2023, retail sales of makeup products in the United States are expected to grow 10%, surpassing 13.6 million dollars. As many consumers return to their pre-pandemic lifestyles, demand for innovation, particularly in the face and lip makeup segments, is expected to drive sales. According to MintelHowever, the market is expected to stabilize over the next five years, with growth of 9% expected to bring it to $14.9 million in 2028. [1]

A market overtaken by price constraints

“In a cost-constrained environment, value is the key word. Low consumer confidence in the future continues to lead to very price-conscious behavior, the popularity of dupes being part of this, encouraged by social media. This is particularly true among younger consumers, who are more likely to be influenced by social media,” explains Joan Li chez Senior Beauty and Personal Care Analyst Mintel.

According to Mintel, three-quarters (74%) of makeup users agree that affordable makeup products work just as well as high-end products, which suggests a makeup culture favorable to “dupes.” A third of makeup consumers aged 18 to 24 (33%) and 25 to 34 (35%) also say they have purchased a makeup “dupe” after seeing it on social media.

However, the “lipstick effect,” which allows makeup to evade threats to discretionary spending in times of economic crisis, has protected the category thus far.

In the future, however, the color cosmetics market is expected to stabilize. “We expect growth to slow due to headwinds from continued low price choice, the importance of remote working, hybrid lifestyles, and increasing competition from adjacent categories, such as ingestibles. and skin care,” emphasizes Joan Li.

Declining interest

Makeup consumption is all the more likely to slow down as interest in this category seems to be weakening.

The data of Mintel reveal a overall decline in category engagement, with a drop in usage among 35% of users, compared to 25% who use more. The most common reason for less use is reduced trips away from home (37%), followed by loss of interest (32%). However, by breaking down these reasons by age, it becomes clear that these are the oldest people (especially after age 55) which are driving this trend.

It is interesting to note that it is men who represent the main category where the frequency of use of makeup is increasing : since 43% of men aged 18 to 44 say they wear makeup more often than a year ago. “Our study shows that men’s appearance concerns focus on skin tone and imperfections, leading them to prefer facial products over other segments,” says Joan Li.

Skin problems predominate among young consumers

Regarding young consumers, Mintel notice that two in five makeup users (42%) aged 18 to 34 say they wear makeup less often than last year out of fear for the health of their skin. This is the main reason for wearing makeup less often, ahead of having less time available (39%). At the same time, 67% of makeup users aged 18 to 34 say they pay more attention to the ingredients used in makeup products than a year ago.

“American women aged 18 to 34 have experienced fewer opportunities to go out of the house and therefore have had fewer opportunities to use makeup, so they may continue to only wear makeup every other day, or once a week, following a ‘flexitarian’ approach, perceived as more pragmatic and healthier for the skin. As the health and wellness industry strives to cover emotional well-being and skin health, consumers will increasingly demand beauty brands to clearly communicate their role in a changing landscape. fully evolving,” concludes Joan Li.

2023-10-03 00:53:51


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