Seeing the decline in fuel prices generates a sigh for Guatemalans and the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEN) predicts good expectations for the coming weeks in relation to fuel prices continuing to fall. Meanwhile, economists agree that although there are positive aspects that will be reflected in the costs of goods and services in the long term, there are also negative aspects that can reverse the outlook.
The reference prices that Guatemala has are a reflection of the costs of oil in the United States, since the price of a barrel has remained “below” US$100, says the head of Energy and Mines, Alberto Pimentel.
“In the international market the downward trend continues, moderate but downward and we hope that in the coming weeks this trend will also be reflected in the Guatemalan market. The price of a barrel of oil remains quite stable and that will cause the price of oil derivatives to decrease.
The discount this week is Q3.07 for superior and regular gasoline and Q2.87 for diesel.
- Superior gasoline went from Q39.58 per gallon to Q36.51.
- Regular gasoline went from Q38.33 to Q35.26.
- Diesel used to cost Q33.78 and now the gallon is at Q30.91.
Current prices are only similar to those that prevailed in 2012 and 2013, when the cost per gallon of regular and super gasoline was around Q35, the highest after a decade, according to historical records of the MEN.
Economists explain that a drop in the price of crude oil generates a chain reaction that involves refineries and the transportation of the product that reaches purchasing countries such as Guatemala, and they foresee a downward trend for Q1 or Q2 more in the coming weeks.
Carlos Gosman, an economist at the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies (ICEFI), assures that the drop in fuel costs will be reflected in the national market in the coming weeks. However, there are other events on the horizon: the demand for diesel in Europe, which depends on the supply from Ukraine, may cause shortages in other regions and the detection of the omicron subvariant of covid-19 in China, may cause the closure of the borders and limit the acquisition of oil.
“In Guatemala, the price reduction will have more impact with the subsidies, it can even be said that the second subsidy is already having an effect and the same is expected to happen in the coming weeks.”
Gosman says that by then there will be no more need for government subsidies.
What will happen to the costs of the basic basket and other products?
David Casasola, a researcher at the Center for Economic Research (CIEN) calls for “patience”, affirming that there are terms in the market and just as high oil prices impacted the basic basket after several months, they could also stabilize in the long run. term.
“This upward pressure on fuel comes from the end of last year. However, the transmission channels are not so direct, it does not mean that if the price of hydrocarbons fell by one dollar, all prices have to fall by one dollar, it cannot be done because there are deadlines for this to be seen. There are certain services and goods that once their prices rise, it is not so easy to lower them, it takes time for the consumer to get used to it and for the chain of competition for these goods to react.
MEN authorities recommend check reference prices and call the number 1544 of the Consumer Service Department (DIACO) if you observe unauthorized prices at service stations.
Until last July 1, the Diaco has registered 26 gas stations that did not comply with applying the subsidy, for which they will be sanctioned with a fine of 30 non-agricultural minimum wages that mean around Q90 thousand.
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