The January frosts led to gas shortages and supply disruptions in the countries of Central Asia. Iran also got it, which, because of Turkmenistan, was forced to reduce exports to Turkey in order to warm the north of the country. What happened is the best publicity for Russia’s proposed gas partnership in Central Asia, experts say.
Frosts came to Central Asia on January 10. Then Uztransgaz announced that in order to provide gas to the population, boiler houses and important facilities, the company was suspending gas supplies to any wholesale consumers in Uzbekistan, including CNG filling stations and manufacturers of building materials.
Then, on January 12, it became known that due to frost, gas supplies to Uzbekistan were stopped by Turkmenistan. They amounted to 16 million cubic meters per day. Power and gas cuts swept through the country at the time, while the thermometer dropped below -25 degrees Celsius.
The suspension of supplies from Turkmenistan was explained by the fact that frosts led to the formation of hydrates in the infield gas pipelines of the Turkmen Galkanysh field. At the same time, imports of Turkmen gas to Iran also stopped. More than a hundred thousand households in the northern provinces and Tehran were left without fuel. The authorities closed schools, government agencies and even private businesses during the abnormal frost.
However, Tehran explained the situation with completely different reasons. Iranian oil minister Jawad Ouji said that Turkmenistan violated the swap contract (for gas supplies to Azerbaijan) in order to meet increased own demand. This course of events led to the fact that Iran itself sharply reduced gas supplies to Turkey in order to provide the north of the country. According to an ICIS analyst Thomas-Marzeka Manceraimports to Turkey fell by 70%.
Dipped and the supply of Turkmen gas to China.
On January 13, the President of Turkmenistan issued severe reprimands to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Abdrakhmanov and Chairman of the Turkmengaz State Concern Amanov. However, deliveries began to recover only a week later – on January 21.
“On the most frosty days, the inhabitants of some massifs in Tashkent sat without electricity, the gas pressure was low, and the heating was weak. In the quarters one could see people warming themselves by the fire. Residents said they were forced to buy food and bask in the mall,” – Gazeta.uz wrote.
“Since these cold weather and constant shutdowns began, the voices of those who said that in no case should you buy Russian gas so as not to become dependent on the Russian Federation have been silenced … We will have to create a Russia-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan gas alliance. There is no other way, because the events of recent days and the growing social tensions show that all the results of the reforms can go down the drain if people do not get gas and freeze. This will discredit any reforms that are being carried out in the country. If someone does not understand this, then this is a very big political mistake,” Director of the Uzbek Center for Research Initiatives Ma’no told podrobno.uz Bakhtiyor Ergashev. He noted that Uzbekistan is not only an energy-deficient country: “In recent years, due to objective reasons, Uzbekistan has also experienced a gas shortage. And this process will continue: the population is growing, the demands of industry and agriculture for natural gas are increasing, new gas-fired thermal power plants are being commissioned, which also require new volumes of natural gas to generate energy.”
Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) Alexey Grivach believes that the cold weather in Central Asia seems to be the best advertising campaign for Russia’s proposed gas partnership in Central Asia and the international gas hub in Turkey.
“And, as you can see, effective. Road maps for cooperation between Gazprom and Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been signed. A government delegation headed by Prime Minister Mishustin has visited Turkmenistan,” says the expert. He believes that such actions on the part of the countries of Central Asia are logical, since Russia has powerful competitive advantages: geography, reserves, infrastructure, and competencies.
So far, the current disruptions have little effect on prices, both in Europe and in Asia, says the managing director of the National Rating Agency (NRA) rating service Sergei Grishunin. In addition, he adds, Russia does not have the technical possibility of a sharp increase in gas supplies to China, and Turkey has not yet increased applications for pumping through the Turkish Stream or Blue Stream.
“However, in the long term, supply disruptions indicate the preference for a more stable supplier in the region (Central Asia), which can help Russia gain its place in this market and partially compensate for the loss of sales in the European direction,” – says the managing director of the NRA rating service.
After the start of the NWO in Ukraine, Russian gas supplies to Europe dropped sharply due to sanctions and counter-sanctions. The President of Russia stated that it is necessary to reorient the flows to the East. The first option for pipeline gas is to increase supplies to China. The second is the organization of the route through Central Asia.
There is a transcontinental system of gas pipelines Central Asia – Center. Built during the Soviet era, it was intended to supply gas from Turkmenistan to Russia. Gazprom estimates the capacity of the system at 80 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
The existing infrastructure will allow starting gas supplies to Iran, which agreed to receive 10 billion cubic meters in the north of the country in exchange for fuel exports from the south. Also, Russian gas can enter the existing gas pipeline to China from Central Asia and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) project, which has not yet been built.
At the end of November, the Russian president came up with a proposal to create a tripartite alliance with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to transport Russian gas to Asia. This idea sparked insinuations about the political underpinnings of the union. However, Moscow insisted that it was about technical cooperation.
Yesterday, January 24, the head of Gazprom Alexey Miller and Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan Jurabek Mirzamahmudov signed a roadmap for cooperation in the gas industry.
“In accordance with the signed roadmap, the working group agreed on the technical measures necessary for the implementation of gas transit through the Central Asia-Center gas pipeline passing through the territory of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,” – reports the Ministry of Energy of Uzbekistan in its telegram channel. They noted that they would then discuss the terms of gas supply while maintaining full control over the country’s gas transmission system: “… The negotiations and the roadmap provide for the supply of natural gas to the domestic market in the required volumes while fully maintaining ownership of the existing gas transmission system of the Republic of Uzbekistan (with full management rights) . In this case, there is no threat to either the gas transportation system or our sovereignty.”
Even earlier, on January 18, the head of Gazprom signed a roadmap for Kazakhstan with the first deputy prime minister of the country Roman Sklyar. There was also no policy in the document.
“According to the results of the negotiations, a roadmap was signed, which defines the main areas of interaction between the parties, in particular, on the processing of Kazakh gas at the Orenburg GPP, the possibility of supplying Russian gas to Kazakhstan, as well as promising cooperation projects,” – the press service of the Kazakh government reported.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Energy of the country said that both countries are still negotiating on cooperation for gasification of the north and east of Kazakhstan.
“We are still negotiating. As a working option, this is through Barnaul, most likely, then to the north of our territory and further branching between Pavlodar, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semey and so on. Alternatively, it could also be used for transit, but these negotiations have not yet been completed,” – said the head of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan Bolat Akchulakov. According to the minister, the Kazakh side estimates the capacity of the gas pipeline at 10 billion cubic meters: “If interest is expressed for some additional volumes of supply to the south, a more powerful pipeline could be considered, say, more than 20-30 billion cubic meters of gas. But these are questions of negotiations.
